Revenue shortfall against plan

High

Very High

A 10% miss removes R120 243 of Year 3 EBITDA — 73% of it — because the cost base is fixed to the site and the trading hours. The window changed weekly, the size register as retention engine, fitting appointments, and accessory attachment worth R156 494 per 0.1 units.

Owner

Gross margin erosion

High

Very High

Three points costs R76 056 and produces no event that forces attention. Markdown cadence enforced from week six on a schedule; weekly best-seller and worst-seller reporting; monthly shrinkage by category.

Owner

Overbuying beyond open-to-buy

High

Very High

The most common cause of failure in independent fashion retail. Written budget per category per month; no purchase order without available budget; forward cover four to five months of cost of sales.

Owner

Cash exhaustion during the Year 1 trough

Medium

Very High

Month-end cash falls from R268 970 to R116 922 in month ten. R150 000 standby overdraft arranged before opening and drawn rather than reducing the November stock buy.

Owner

Cross-border online erosion of basics

High

High

SHEIN and Temu recorded roughly R7.3bn of SA sales in 2024, growing 15–20%. Do not compete there: mix weighted to dresses, occasion, local capsule and modest edit where fit and immediacy decide.

Owner

Weak festive season

Medium

Very High

December is 12.6% of Year 1 revenue and November and December together 21.4%. There is no subsequent period in which to recover it. September opening gives three months of trading maturity beforehand.

Owner

National chain takes space in the centre

Medium

Very High

A 55 m² independent has no structural defence within one lease cycle. Tenant-only break negotiated at month 36; individual customer relationships a chain cannot replicate.

Owner

Turnover clause reduces marginal contribution

High

Medium

Binding from Year 3; every incremental rand carries 7.5 cents of rent. Negotiate the rate to 6.5% or raise the breakpoint before signing — worth roughly R26 000 a year by Year 5.

Owner

Payroll escalation above plan

High

Medium

The national minimum wage rose 5.0% against 3.2% inflation and 10 000 further labour inspectors are being appointed. Payroll escalated at 5.5%, not CPI. Sunday hours reviewed at lease renewal.

Owner

Shrinkage above plan

Medium

Medium

Each 0.5 point is R12 676 at Year 3 revenue. Tags on every garment above R150; fitting-room garment count; weekly cycle counts on the twenty highest-value styles; 1.5% triggers a full count.

Senior consultant

Supplier credit not extended

Medium

High

Each Year 1 day is worth R2 925 against a R116 922 trough. Open two accounts, pay visibly to terms for three cycles, then ask. Never stretch a distributor to fund a slow month.

Owner

Key person dependency on the founder

High

High

The owner is the buyer, the cash control and the customer relationship. Senior consultant trained as keyholder from month one; open-to-buy documented rather than held in one head.

Owner