Bloomhouse Florals — Financial Plan — Assumptions & Methodology
The key financial assumptions and modelling methodology — revenue by channel, pricing and volumes, the cost structure, capital structure, tax and the macroeconomic inputs.
Section 11 · Business Plan
Financial Plan — Assumptions & Methodology
The key financial assumptions and modelling methodology — revenue by channel, pricing and volumes, the cost structure, capital structure, tax and the macroeconomic inputs.
The financial projections are produced by a single integrated
three-statement model in which the profit and loss, balance sheet and
cash flow are linked and internally consistent. Every table and chart in
this document derives from that one model. This section sets out the
assumptions, the methodology and the deliberately conservative posture
taken in re-deriving profitability and returns.
11.1 Methodology and posture
Revenue is built bottom-up from unit economics for each of the five
streams. Cost of sales, operating expenses, working capital, capital
expenditure, depreciation, debt service and tax are then modelled
explicitly, and the three statements are reconciled so that the balance
sheet ties to zero in every projection year. Where the sponsor’s
commercial assumptions are aggressive, they are preserved at the revenue
and EBITDA level but profitability is re-derived conservatively — with
full depreciation, full interest and the statutory tax rate — and the
resulting bankability concerns are flagged explicitly rather than
smoothed over.
projections
Headline revenue and EBITDA reflect the sponsor’s growth case. Net
profit and returns are re-derived on a fully-loaded, conservative basis:
full depreciation on all assets, full interest on all facilities, and
South Africa’s 27% corporate tax rate with assessed-loss carry-forward.
No interim dividends are assumed and returns are realised only on exit.
Aggressive or assumption-sensitive inputs — notably the revenue CAGR and
the exit multiple — are flagged throughout. Independent professional due
diligence is recommended before any external circulation.
11.2 Macroeconomic and tax assumptions
| Assumption | Value used |
|---|---|
| Prime lending rate | 10.50% |
| Cost inflation (opex escalation) | 4.5% |
| Corporate tax rate | 27% |
| Senior term-loan interest rate | 13.75% |
| Asset-finance interest rate | 13.00% |
| Revolving facility rate (undrawn) | 14.5% |
| Model base date | June 2026 |
Table 19. Macroeconomic, financing and tax
assumptions. Rates reflect the South African environment at the model
base date.
11.3 Revenue and cost assumptions
Revenue grows from R10.5m in Year 1 to R39.6m in Year 5, a compound
annual growth rate of approximately 39.5%. This is an ambitious
trajectory and is flagged as the single most important assumption in the
plan. Gross margin improves from 55.5% to 58% as scale, sourcing
discipline and spoilage reduction take effect. Operating expenses are
modelled line by line and grow more slowly than revenue, producing the
operating leverage that drives EBITDA margin from near break-even to 20%
by Year 5.
aggressive assumption
A 39.5% five-year revenue CAGR is achievable for a well-executed
multi-channel launch from a small base, but it is demanding and leaves
little room for sustained under-performance. The sensitivity analysis in
Section 16 shows that a 19% revenue shortfall reduces equity IRR from
44.7% to roughly 7%. Investors and lenders should treat the growth case
as the central scenario to be tested, not as a given.
11.4 Capital expenditure and depreciation
Initial capital expenditure of R8.8m is funded from the raise;
subsequent maintenance and expansion capex (including the Year-3
Pretoria studio) is funded from internally generated cash and asset
finance. Each asset is depreciated straight-line over its useful life.
The register below sets out the capital programme.
| Capital item | R’m | Life (yrs) | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leasehold improvements & fit-out (flagship) | 3.1 | 6 | 1 |
| Cold-chain & processing equipment | 1.4 | 8 | 1 |
| Refrigerated delivery vehicles (3) | 2.1 | 5 | 1 |
| E-commerce, POS, ERP & IT | 0.9 | 3 | 1 |
| Furniture, fittings, signage & tools | 0.6 | 6 | 1 |
| Pre-launch, training & launch (capitalised) | 0.7 | 3 | 1 |
| Pretoria studio fit-out | 1.3 | 6 | 3 |
| Pretoria cold-chain equipment | 0.5 | 8 | 3 |
| 4th refrigerated vehicle | 0.6 | 5 | 3 |
| IT refresh (Y4) | 0.9 | 3 | 4 |
| Maintenance capex (Y2) | 0.3 | 6 | 2 |
| Maintenance capex (Y4) | 0.5 | 6 | 4 |
| Maintenance capex (Y5) | 0.6 | 6 | 5 |
| Initial capital expenditure (Year 1) | 8.8 | — | 1 |
Table 20. Capital-expenditure register with
useful lives and timing. Year-1 items total the R8.8m initial capex
funded from the raise.
11.5 Working-capital assumptions
Working capital reflects the channel mix. Retail and online sales are
largely cash or card on delivery, while corporate and event contracts
carry receivables; inventory is deliberately lean given perishability;
and supplier terms provide modest payables. The model assumes
receivables only on the credit-based portion of revenue (corporate and
events), low inventory days consistent with a perishable product, and
standard supplier payment terms.
| R’ millions | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receivables | R0.23m | R0.35m | R0.52m | R0.74m | R0.99m |
| Inventory | R0.15m | R0.22m | R0.31m | R0.42m | R0.55m |
| Payables | R0.31m | R0.43m | R0.62m | R0.84m | R1.09m |
| Net working capital | R0.08m | R0.13m | R0.21m | R0.32m | R0.44m |
Table 21. Working-capital build. Lean inventory
reflects perishability; receivables arise on the credit-based corporate
and events portion of revenue.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Bloomhouse Florals (Pty) Ltd.