Streetfire Kitchens Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every covers, spend, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.
Key Assumptions
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Operating Model
- 3. Licensing, Food Safety and Trading Rights
- 4. Market and Customers
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and Team
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. Risk Analysis
- 12. Implementation Roadmap
- 13. Key Performance Indicators
- 14. Key Assumptions
- 15. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Truck-Day and Trading Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 14.1 Trading, covers and pricing
- 14.2 Capital, cost and funding
- 14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification
14.1 Trading, covers and pricing
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Trucks in service, average |
1.4 |
5.0 |
Three at launch; trucks four and five added in Years 3 and 4 |
|
Days available per truck |
282 |
282 |
Six-day week allowing for servicing |
|
Days lost to weather, breakdown and cancellation |
5.5% |
5.5% |
Leaving 266 effective trading days per truck |
|
Utilisation of effective days |
78% |
98% |
The ramp as pitches, markets and the event pipeline build |
|
Truck-days traded |
291 |
1 306 |
The unit of account for the whole model |
|
Covers per service |
107 |
107 |
Held flat; the plan does not assume the queue grows |
|
Weekday street average spend |
R95.00 |
R120.75 |
Escalated at 6.2%; a main plus a drink |
|
Weekend market average spend |
R108.00 |
R137.27 |
Higher attachment of sides and drinks |
|
Private event per head |
R127.00 |
R161.42 |
Inside the reported R80 to R200 range; Gauteng runs R120 to R200 |
|
Event days as a share of the calendar |
11% |
20% |
The main job of the sales function this plan funds |
|
Revenue per truck-day |
R10 932 |
R14 623 |
Rises on price and event mix, not on covers |
|
Contribution per truck-day |
R3 514 |
R5 060 |
|
|
Covers served |
31 021 |
139 198 |
14.2 Capital, cost and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Food trucks, three at launch |
R2 055 000 |
R685 000 each including vehicle, conversion and kitchen fit-out |
|
Commissary fit-out, cold rooms and equipment |
R1 180 000 |
110 m² licensed preparation kitchen |
|
Generators, gas installation and certification |
R168 000 |
Gas Certificate of Conformity required on each truck |
|
Branding, professional fees, small wares and POS |
R434 000 |
|
|
Capital expenditure at launch |
R3 837 000 |
|
|
Pre-opening costs |
R416 000 |
Charged to Year 1 below EBITDA |
|
Working capital and contingency |
R3 784 000 |
Carries two loss-making years without a further call |
|
Total funding at launch |
RNaN |
|
|
Trucks four and five |
R685 000 each |
Years 3 and 4; 70% advanced as asset finance, balance from cash flow |
|
Central fixed costs |
R2 744 010 |
Of which R2 215 239 is cash; escalated at 5.5% |
|
Per-truck ownership costs |
R134 000 per truck |
Maintenance, insurance, licensing and permits |
|
Commissary lease |
R174 240 a year |
110 m² at R132/m² a month |
|
Crew rate |
R58 an hour |
Against a national minimum wage of R30.23; costed per service |
|
Food cost |
33% street, 28% event |
30.8% blended; escalated at 5.8% |
|
Promoter and investor equity |
R5 900 000 |
73.4% of launch funding |
|
Asset finance |
R2 137 000 at launch |
Five years at 14.00%, secured on the trucks |
|
Working capital facility |
R350 000 |
Committed; working capital peaks at R144 127 |
|
Taxation |
Small Business Corporation rates |
Assessed losses carried forward; no tax in the projection |
|
Exit multiple |
3.5x Year 5 EBITDA |
An owner-managed food business whose assets are vehicles |
14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification
|
Assumption |
Modelled |
Verification required |
Consequence if wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
|
107 covers per service |
Held flat across the projection |
One truck traded for a full quarter with covers counted by day type |
Break-even is 100 on three trucks. Headroom is 6.2% and a 15% shortfall removes R1.37m of mature EBITDA |
|
Four or more weekday pitches available |
Signed before trucks two and three |
Written agreements with landlords and facilities managers, not indications |
Weekday trade is 43.1% of revenue and there is no security of tenure |
|
Event days reaching 20% of the calendar |
From 11% in Year 1 |
A booked pipeline and a portfolio a corporate buyer can check |
Events are 30.1% of gross profit; each point of mix is worth about R62 057 |
|
R127.00 per head at events |
On 130 guests, R16 510 per event |
Quotations against comparable Gauteng bookings |
Inside the reported R80 to R200 range but only just above the Gauteng floor of R120 |
|
Commissary certifiable at the chosen premises |
Certificate of Acceptability before trucks are built |
Pre-inspection engagement with the Environmental Health Practitioner |
The kitchen is the premises the compliance sits against; a failure stops everything |
|
266 effective trading days per truck |
282 less 5.5% lost |
Local weather records and market cancellation history |
A 12% shortfall in days removes R594 000 of mature EBITDA |
|
Crew available at R58 an hour |
Costed per service |
Local market testing before the second and third trucks |
Crew is 16% of revenue and service quality drives the covers that drive everything |
The list is ordered by consequence, and the first item is not close. Covers per service is simultaneously the largest driver in the sensitivity analysis, the tightest constraint at launch scale, and the only assumption on the list that can be settled definitively for the cost of trading one truck for three months. Everything else can be negotiated, deferred or improved.