Streetfire Kitchens Business Plan — Key Assumptions

Every covers, spend, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.

Key Assumptions

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  • 14.1 Trading, covers and pricing
  • 14.2 Capital, cost and funding
  • 14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

14.1 Trading, covers and pricing

Assumption

Year 1

Year 5

Basis

Trucks in service, average

1.4

5.0

Three at launch; trucks four and five added in Years 3 and 4

Days available per truck

282

282

Six-day week allowing for servicing

Days lost to weather, breakdown and cancellation

5.5%

5.5%

Leaving 266 effective trading days per truck

Utilisation of effective days

78%

98%

The ramp as pitches, markets and the event pipeline build

Truck-days traded

291

1 306

The unit of account for the whole model

Covers per service

107

107

Held flat; the plan does not assume the queue grows

Weekday street average spend

R95.00

R120.75

Escalated at 6.2%; a main plus a drink

Weekend market average spend

R108.00

R137.27

Higher attachment of sides and drinks

Private event per head

R127.00

R161.42

Inside the reported R80 to R200 range; Gauteng runs R120 to R200

Event days as a share of the calendar

11%

20%

The main job of the sales function this plan funds

Revenue per truck-day

R10 932

R14 623

Rises on price and event mix, not on covers

Contribution per truck-day

R3 514

R5 060

Covers served

31 021

139 198

14.2 Capital, cost and funding

Assumption

Value

Basis

Food trucks, three at launch

R2 055 000

R685 000 each including vehicle, conversion and kitchen fit-out

Commissary fit-out, cold rooms and equipment

R1 180 000

110 m² licensed preparation kitchen

Generators, gas installation and certification

R168 000

Gas Certificate of Conformity required on each truck

Branding, professional fees, small wares and POS

R434 000

Capital expenditure at launch

R3 837 000

Pre-opening costs

R416 000

Charged to Year 1 below EBITDA

Working capital and contingency

R3 784 000

Carries two loss-making years without a further call

Total funding at launch

RNaN

Trucks four and five

R685 000 each

Years 3 and 4; 70% advanced as asset finance, balance from cash flow

Central fixed costs

R2 744 010

Of which R2 215 239 is cash; escalated at 5.5%

Per-truck ownership costs

R134 000 per truck

Maintenance, insurance, licensing and permits

Commissary lease

R174 240 a year

110 m² at R132/m² a month

Crew rate

R58 an hour

Against a national minimum wage of R30.23; costed per service

Food cost

33% street, 28% event

30.8% blended; escalated at 5.8%

Promoter and investor equity

R5 900 000

73.4% of launch funding

Asset finance

R2 137 000 at launch

Five years at 14.00%, secured on the trucks

Working capital facility

R350 000

Committed; working capital peaks at R144 127

Taxation

Small Business Corporation rates

Assessed losses carried forward; no tax in the projection

Exit multiple

3.5x Year 5 EBITDA

An owner-managed food business whose assets are vehicles

14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

Assumption

Modelled

Verification required

Consequence if wrong

107 covers per service

Held flat across the projection

One truck traded for a full quarter with covers counted by day type

Break-even is 100 on three trucks. Headroom is 6.2% and a 15% shortfall removes R1.37m of mature EBITDA

Four or more weekday pitches available

Signed before trucks two and three

Written agreements with landlords and facilities managers, not indications

Weekday trade is 43.1% of revenue and there is no security of tenure

Event days reaching 20% of the calendar

From 11% in Year 1

A booked pipeline and a portfolio a corporate buyer can check

Events are 30.1% of gross profit; each point of mix is worth about R62 057

R127.00 per head at events

On 130 guests, R16 510 per event

Quotations against comparable Gauteng bookings

Inside the reported R80 to R200 range but only just above the Gauteng floor of R120

Commissary certifiable at the chosen premises

Certificate of Acceptability before trucks are built

Pre-inspection engagement with the Environmental Health Practitioner

The kitchen is the premises the compliance sits against; a failure stops everything

266 effective trading days per truck

282 less 5.5% lost

Local weather records and market cancellation history

A 12% shortfall in days removes R594 000 of mature EBITDA

Crew available at R58 an hour

Costed per service

Local market testing before the second and third trucks

Crew is 16% of revenue and service quality drives the covers that drive everything

The list is ordered by consequence, and the first item is not close. Covers per service is simultaneously the largest driver in the sensitivity analysis, the tightest constraint at launch scale, and the only assumption on the list that can be settled definitively for the cost of trading one truck for three months. Everything else can be negotiated, deferred or improved.