Savannah & Sakura Hospitality Group Business Plan › Section 13 › Financial Plan

This section presents the Group’s integrated five-year financial
plan: the assumptions register, projected income statement, balance
sheet and cash-flow statement, followed by ratio analysis, break-even,
sensitivity and scenario testing, the debt-service and amortisation
schedules, working-capital build and a monthly Year-1 cash-flow profile.
All statements are generated from a single integrated model and
reconcile to one another; the balance sheet ties to zero in every
year.

13.1 Key Assumptions Register

Table 14. Key financial assumptions
register.

13.2 Projected Income Statement (R’m)

Table 15. Projected income statement, Year 1 to
Year 5 (R’m).

Revenue grows from R165m to R1,255m as venues commission and ramp.
EBITDA margin expands from 15.2% to 25.7%. Net profit is modest in Year
1 (R1.8m) under the weight of commissioning costs, full depreciation and
interest, then scales to R196m by Year 5 — a net margin of 15.6%. Year-1
thinness is expected and credible for a multi-venue luxury build.

Figure 7

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13.3 Projected Balance Sheet (R’m)

Table 16. Projected balance sheet, Year 1 to
Year 5 (R’m). Balance check ties to zero in every year.

The balance sheet reflects the capital programme building property,
plant and equipment to a peak of R343m in Year 3 before depreciation
outpaces maintenance capex. Debt peaks at R184m and amortises to R107m
by Year 5. The balance sheet validates internally: total assets equal
total equity and liabilities in every year, with a balance check of zero
throughout.

13.4 Projected Cash-Flow Statement (R’m)

Table 17. Projected cash-flow statement, Year 1
to Year 5 (R’m).

Operating cash flow turns positive from Year 2 (R22.1m) and grows to
R224.8m by Year 5. Investing outflows are concentrated in Years 1–3
(R162m, R167m, R101m) as the build programme completes. Financing
reflects the staged equity and debt drawdowns and, from Year 4, debt
amortisation and the commencement of dividends. Closing cash never falls
below R21.8m, preserving a liquidity buffer throughout.

Figure 9

13.5 Ratio Analysis

Table 18. Key credit and return ratios, Year 1
to Year 5.

The ratio profile is consistent with a bankable, conservatively
geared project. DSCR troughs at 1.20x in Year 2 — the peak-build year —
then strengthens to 5.93x by Year 5, comfortably above a typical 1.20x
lender covenant. Net debt / EBITDA peaks at 1.61x and de-levers to net
cash by Year 5. Gearing falls from 43.9% to 19.7%, while return on
equity climbs to 36.5% as the platform matures.

Figure 10

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13.6 Break-Even Analysis

On a consolidated basis the Group reaches operating break-even during
Year 3, at approximately R466.8m of revenue — around 75.3% of projected
Year-3 revenue. This is driven by fixed costs of roughly R258.6m against
a contribution margin of 55.4%. The early-year build means break-even is
appropriately back-weighted; individual mature venues break even far
sooner.

Figure 13

13.7 Sensitivity Analysis

The tornado analysis below isolates the Year-5 EBITDA impact of
moving each key driver independently. Year-5 EBITDA is most sensitive to
average spend and cover volumes, then to food-and-beverage cost and
payroll — confirming that revenue quality and procurement discipline are
the dominant value levers.

Figure 14

13.8 Scenario Analysis

Table 19. Scenario analysis: base, upside,
downside and severe-stress cases.

Even in the severe-stress case (revenue 30% below plan and margin
five points lower), the platform remains EBITDA-positive at R182m,
demonstrating resilience. The base case carries computed returns that
are high and execution-dependent; these are presented transparently and
should be read against the sponsor’s more conservative planning target
discussed in Section 15.

Figure 15

13.9 Debt-Service & Amortisation Schedule

Table 20. Senior-debt drawdown, interest,
amortisation and closing-balance schedule (R’m).

Senior debt is drawn in line with the build programme and benefits
from a Year-1 interest-only grace period, with principal amortising over
seven years thereafter. Annual debt service is covered 1.20x at its
tightest, providing the lender meaningful protection through the
construction and ramp phases.

13.10 Working-Capital Build

Hospitality is a favourable working-capital business: guests pay at
or before consumption, while suppliers are paid on terms. The Group
nonetheless funds a prudent working-capital buffer (R70m within the
capital programme) to absorb the early-year ramp, inventory build for
the consumer-products line, and the timing of membership and event
receipts. Working-capital assets grow modestly from R40m to R84m as the
platform scales.

13.11 Monthly Year-1 Cash-Flow Profile

The monthly Year-1 profile below illustrates the commissioning
trajectory: revenue builds steadily as the Cape Town flagship and
central kitchen come online, EBITDA turns and grows through the year,
and the cash position draws down predictably against the staged capital
programme before subsequent funding tranches and operating cash arrest
the decline. This profile confirms that the modelled liquidity buffer is
sufficient through the most cash-intensive phase.

Figure 16

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