AgriNova Sugar SA — Implementation Roadmap & Milestones
The phased implementation roadmap and key milestones from financial close and mill take-on through diversification to land and energy monetisation.
Section 14 · Business Plan
Implementation Roadmap & Milestones
The phased implementation roadmap and key milestones from financial close and mill take-on through diversification to land and energy monetisation.
This section translates the Plan’s strategic and operational
ambitions into a sequenced, time-bound execution programme. The 8-year
roadmap is organised across the three phases set out in Section 5 and
visualised below in Gantt format.
14.1 Phase 1 Milestones (Years 1–2)
| # | Milestone | Target date | Critical dependency | KPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | Capital raise mandate signed (lead arranger) | Apr 2026 | — | Mandate |
| 1.2 | Conditional binding term sheets | Sep 2026 | DFI credit committee approvals | All tranches |
| 1.3 | Financial close & first capital draw-down | Dec 2026 | 1.2 | R6.0 bn equity, R8.0 bn debt |
| 1.4 | Mill 1 SPA signature | Jul 2026 | 1.2 | Acquired |
| 1.5 | Mill 1 Effective Date / take-on | Mar 2027 | 1.4 + Comp Comm approval | Operational control |
| 1.6 | Mill 2 SPA signature | Jan 2027 | 1.3 | Acquired |
| 1.7 | Mill 2 Effective Date / take-on | Sep 2027 | 1.6 + Comp Comm approval | Operational control |
| 1.8 | Initial 8,000 ha land assembled | Dec 2027 | 1.3 | Title deeds registered |
| 1.9 | Outgrower programme launched (5,000) | Jun 2028 | 1.3 | Active growers |
| 1.10 | Mill 1 efficiency capex completed | Dec 2028 | 1.5 | Recovery 11.8% |
| 1.11 | Mill 2 efficiency capex completed | Dec 2028 | 1.7 | Recovery 11.6% |
| 1.12 | First combined 1.5 Mt crush season | Dec 2027 | 1.5 + 1.7 | Volume achieved |
14.2 Phase 2 Milestones (Years 2–5)
| # | Milestone | Target date | Critical dependency | KPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | Ethanol plant FEED completed | Mar 2028 | 1.3 | FEED report |
| 2.2 | Ethanol plant EPC contract awarded | Sep 2028 | 2.1 | EPC signed |
| 2.3 | Ethanol plant construction start | Apr 2028 | 2.2 | Site mobilised |
| 2.4 | Animal feed mill commissioned | Sep 2028 | 1.10 | Production ramp |
| 2.5 | Starch & glucose line commissioned | Sep 2029 | 1.10 | Production ramp |
| 2.6 | Outgrower programme expansion to 12,000 | Jun 2029 | 1.9 | Active growers |
| 2.7 | Bagasse cogeneration upgrade Mill 1 | Mar 2030 | 1.10 | 30 MW export |
| 2.8 | Bagasse cogeneration upgrade Mill 2 | Jun 2030 | 1.11 | 30 MW export |
| 2.9 | Ethanol plant first commercial production | Mar 2030 | 2.3 | 8 ML produced |
| 2.10 | Ethanol plant nameplate capacity (80 ML) | Mar 2031 | 2.9 | 78+ ML p.a. |
| 2.11 | Outgrower programme to 20,000+ | Jun 2031 | 2.6 | Active growers |
| 2.12 | Group EBITDA exceeds R7 bn (run-rate) | Mar 2031 | 2.10 + 2.11 | EBITDA |
14.3 Phase 3 Milestones (Years 4–8)
| # | Milestone | Target date | Critical dependency | KPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Land monetisation Phase A — re-zoning approved | Jun 2030 | 1.8 | Approved |
| 3.2 | Land monetisation Phase A — bulk infrastructure | Dec 2031 | 3.1 | Roads, services |
| 3.3 | Land monetisation Phase A — first plot sales | Mar 2031 | 3.2 | First sale |
| 3.4 | 80 MW solar farm — financial close | Mar 2030 | 1.3 | Project finance |
| 3.5 | 80 MW solar farm — COD | Mar 2032 | 3.4 | Power output |
| 3.6 | Industrial / logistics park — re-zoning approved | Mar 2031 | 1.8 | Approved |
| 3.7 | Industrial / logistics park — first occupation | Mar 2033 | 3.6 | First tenant |
| 3.8 | Land monetisation Phase B launch | Apr 2032 | 3.3 | Re-zoning |
| 3.9 | Bio-chemicals pilot complete | Sep 2033 | 2.10 | Pilot results |
| 3.10 | Senior debt refinancing | Apr 2033 | 2.12 | New facility |
| 3.11 | Partial DFI exit (secondary) | Apr 2033 | 3.10 | DFI exit |
| 3.12 | JSE listing or strategic exit window | Jul 2034 | All | Liquidity event |
14.4 Critical Path and Dependencies
The critical path through the implementation programme is:
- Financial close (Dec 2026) — gates everything that
follows - Mill 1 Effective Date (Mar 2027) — gates the cane intake
ramp - Mill efficiency capex (Dec 2028) — gates the EBITDA-margin
uplift - Ethanol plant FEED + EPC + construction (Apr 2028 → Mar 2030) —
gates Phase 2 EBITDA contribution - Land Phase A re-zoning (Jun 2030) — gates Phase 3 property
monetisation - Group EBITDA threshold (Mar 2031) — gates refinancing and DFI
exit
14.5 Governance of Execution
Execution is governed via a project management office (PMO) reporting
to the Group CEO, with monthly status reporting to the Holding Board.
Each major workstream (acquisitions, build-out, integration,
transformation) has a dedicated Programme Director with full authority
and accountability for milestone delivery.
Each capital deployment exceeding R200 million requires a formal
stage-gate Investment Committee approval. The stage-gate framework
requires (i) a refreshed business case at the gate, (ii) confirmation of
regulatory and ESG conditions, (iii) demonstration of
construction-readiness, and (iv) lender consent where required. The
discipline is intended to prevent capex over-run and ensure that the
macro-economic conditions assumed at financial close remain valid at the
moment of commitment.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of AgriNova Sugar SA (Pty) Ltd.