Aurum Grill™ is a proposed premium mass-market quick-service restaurant (“QSR”) and franchise platform designed to become one of Southern Africa’s most scalable and recognisable food-service brands. The Company seeks R550 million in capital to establish an integrated platform of corporate-owned flagship restaurants, a national franchise network, central commissary and cold-chain infrastructure, a proprietary digital ordering ecosystem, and strategic real-estate site control.
The business model is deliberately architected around the proven operating principles of leading global QSR systems, corporate flagship anchoring, franchise-led geographic scale, supply-chain centralisation, real-estate participation and data-driven customer engagement, adapted for South African urban growth patterns, localised flavour preferences, the commuter economy and rapidly expanding app-based delivery.
|
R550m CAPITAL RAISE |
100 RESTAURANTS BY FY2031 |
R3.2bn FY2031 SYSTEM SALES |
56.9% BASE-CASE EQUITY IRR |
The investment thesis
Five structural forces underpin the opportunity, each independently validated by industry data and consumer research:
- A large, maturing market. South Africa operates the most advanced food-service industry in Africa, with a fast-food market valued at approximately USD 6.3 billion in 2024 and forecast to grow at roughly 3.8% per annum to USD 8.2 billion by 2033; QSR accounts for close to 40% of continental food-service revenue.
- Convenience and digital migration. Takeaway now exceeds dine-in in weekly frequency, and app-based ordering through Mr D, Uber Eats and Bolt Food has structurally reshaped demand toward off-premise, high-throughput and delivery-optimised formats.
- A capital-light scaling engine. The franchise model funds roughly 80% of the network’s store count from franchisee capital (R8m–R15m per store), allowing the Company to reach 100 restaurants while directly financing only 20 corporate flagships plus shared infrastructure.
- Annuity-quality cash flows. Royalties (6% of turnover), marketing levies (3%), property rentals, supplier rebates and initial franchise fees layer recurring, high-margin income over corporate store profits.
- A proven exit landscape. Scaled QSR platforms in South Africa have historically achieved liquidity through JSE listings, strategic acquisition by global operators, and private-equity secondary transactions.
Financial summary
The projections preserve the sponsor’s headline system-wide trajectory. Below EBITDA, this plan independently re-derives depreciation, cash interest and taxation (27% South African corporate rate with assessed-loss carry-forward), and constructs a fully articulated three-statement model whose balance sheet ties to zero in every projection year.
|
Metric (R’m unless stated) |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Restaurants operating |
8 |
18 |
35 |
65 |
100 |
|
System-wide sales |
180 |
516 |
1,050 |
1,956 |
3,200 |
|
System EBITDA |
22 |
72 |
210 |
391 |
688 |
|
Statutory Company revenue |
183 |
470 |
776 |
1,081 |
1,334 |
|
Statutory EBITDA |
(12) |
43 |
131 |
238 |
337 |
|
Net profit / (loss) after tax |
(58) |
(9) |
64 |
130 |
199 |
|
Senior DSCR (x) |
-0.58 |
1.99 |
2.29 |
3.61 |
5.03 |
Note: “System-wide sales” is the network’s gross turnover (the sponsor’s headline metric). “Statutory Company revenue” is the Company’s own IFRS-15 revenue (corporate sales, royalties, fees, property income and rebates) on which the statutory financial statements and debt service are built. The bridge between the two is set out in Section 19.
Key findingSystem-wide sales are not the Company’s statutory revenue
The single most important interpretive point for lenders and investors: the headline R3.2bn FY2031 figure represents network-wide gross turnover across all 100 restaurants, of which ~80 are franchisee-owned. On an IFRS-15 basis the Company’s own revenue, corporate store sales plus royalties, franchise fees, property income and supplier rebates, is approximately R1.33bn in FY2031, or roughly 58% below the system-wide figure.
Debt service, taxation and equity returns in this plan are underwritten against the lower statutory base, not the headline. This is the correct and conservative basis for credit assessment.
Capital structure and use of proceeds
The R550 million raise comprises R350 million of equity, a R150 million senior secured facility and a R50 million revolving working-capital facility. Proceeds fund the central commissary and cold-chain, the first eight corporate flagships, the technology platform, owned flagship property, head-office infrastructure, brand launch, a R25 million debt-service reserve account and a working-capital and contingency reserve.
Returns and exit
On the statutory basis, and assuming a 9.0× EV/EBITDA exit at the end of FY2031, the base case generates an equity IRR of approximately 56.9% and a 9.4× gross multiple, supported by interim dividends from FY2030. Returns are attractive across the sensitivity range but are highly dependent on execution of the rollout and on the terminal exit multiple, as detailed in Sections 23 and 24.
Analyst flagReturns are execution- and exit-dependent
The base-case equity return is a direct arithmetic consequence of the sponsor’s aggressive 18× revenue growth over five years. Achieving the 100-restaurant / R3.2bn network is the binding constraint. Under a downside in which the network reaches ~60% of target terminal EBITDA and exits at 7.0×, the equity IRR compresses to approximately 36%, still positive, but materially lower. A severe execution shortfall (materially fewer stores, slower ramp) would impair equity value more sharply than the modelled downside.