Aurum Grill Business Plan — Investment Structure

The proposed structure balances equity risk capital, senior leverage and a working-capital facility, with returns assessed on the conservative statutory basis and stress-tested across exit multiples and scenarios.

Proposed capital structure

Source	Amount	Share	Instrument
Equity capital	R350m	64%	Ordinary equity risk capital
Senior debt	R150m	27%	Senior secured, amortising, 13.25%
Working-capital facility	R50m	9%	Revolving, prime + 3.5%
Total	R550m	100%

Projected equity returns

On the statutory basis, assuming a 9.0× EV/EBITDA exit at end-FY2031 and interim dividends from FY2030, the base case generates an equity IRR of approximately 56.9% and a 9.4× gross multiple. The table below sets out returns across scenarios and exit multiples.

Figure 25. *Equity returns by scenario at representative exit multiples; MOIC with IRR labels.*

Figure 26. *Equity IRR sensitivity to exit EV/EBITDA multiple and scenario — the primary driver of return dispersion.*

Scenario	Terminal statutory EBITDA	Exit 7.0×	Exit 9.0×	Exit 11.0×
Downside	202m	36%	42%	47%
Base	337m	50%	57%	63%
Upside	398m	55%	62%	68%

Analyst flagReturns present two ways — headline and normalised

On the sponsor’s system-wide EBITDA, an illustrative 9.0× exit would imply an equity IRR above 79%, a figure we regard as an aggressive upper bound, not an underwriting anchor. The statutory base case (~57%) and the downside range (~36–47%) are the appropriate lenses. All are attractive, and all are contingent on delivering the rollout and achieving the assumed exit multiple.