The following register documents every material assumption underpinning the model, its value and its rationale, so reviewers can independently test each input.
|
Assumption |
Value |
Source / rationale |
|---|---|---|
|
Revenue trajectory |
R95m → R710m |
Sponsor targets, preserved exactly |
|
EBITDA trajectory |
R18m → R228m |
Sponsor targets, preserved exactly |
|
EBITDA margin |
18.9% → 32.1% |
Utilisation maturity + mix shift |
|
Operating costs |
Plug to EBITDA |
Balancing item to sponsor EBITDA |
|
SA corporate tax |
27% |
SARS statutory rate |
|
Assessed-loss cap |
80% |
Post-2022 SA tax rule |
|
Prime / repo |
10.5% / 7.0% |
SARB, July 2026 |
|
Term loan A |
R150m @ 13.0%, 7y, 1y grace |
Prime + 2.5% |
|
Expansion facility B |
R150m @ 13.5%, drawn Y2–Y4 |
Prime + 3.0% |
|
Revolver |
R50m @ 13.5% |
Prime + 3.0%, scheme receivables |
|
Series B equity |
R100m, Years 2–3 |
Expansion round |
|
Depreciation — equipment |
9-year straight-line |
Imaging asset life |
|
Depreciation — fit-outs/IT/mobile |
12 / 5 / 7-year |
Asset-class conventions |
|
Receivables / inventory / payables |
18% / 3% / 8% of revenue |
Scheme settlement & consumables |
|
WACC |
13.1% |
Blended equity & after-tax debt |
|
Exit multiple |
8.5× EV/EBITDA |
Scaled diagnostics comparables |
|
Terminal value |
R1,938m |
8.5× Year-5 EBITDA |
|
Imaging market |
US$454m (2023) → US$616m (2030) |
Independent market studies |
|
Radiologist density |
~1 per 100,000 |
SA vs UK 4.7 / Europe ~13 |