LuminaScanX South Africa Diagnostic Centres Business Plan — Financial Plan & Projections

This section sets out the full financial architecture of LuminaScanX. It preserves the sponsor’s headline revenue and EBITDA exactly and re-derives every line below EBITDA, depreciation, financing cost, taxation and net profit, from an integrated three-statement model in which the balance sheet is required to tie to zero in every year. Where the re-derived numbers diverge from the sponsor’s illustrative figures, the difference is disclosed rather than smoothed.

14.1 Funding structure: sources and uses

The initial R320 million platform raise is funded by R170 million of founding equity and a R150 million senior term facility (Term Loan A). Scaling to the full twenty-five-centre network requires a subsequent expansion round, a R100 million Series B equity injection and a R150 million expansion facility (Term Loan B) drawn across Years 2–4, supported by a R50 million revolving facility for the medical-scheme receivable cycle. Peak funded capital reaches approximately R395 million.

Figure 12. *Use of the initial R320 million raise (R million).*

Uses of initial funds	R m	Sources of capital	R m
Imaging equipment	170	Founding equity (Round 1)	170
Property fit-outs	55	Senior term loan A	150
IT infrastructure (RIS/PACS/Cloud)	20	Series B equity (expansion)	100
Mobile imaging units	30	Expansion facility B (drawn)	150
Working capital	25	Revolving facility (standby)	50
Marketing & brand launch	20
Initial raise total	320	Peak committed capital	620

Figure 13. *Committed capital stack across both funding rounds (R million).*

Key findingThe R320m headline is the platform round, not the peak requirement

The sponsor’s R320 million is the initial platform raise, enough to establish the four flagships. Reaching the R710 million revenue trajectory across twenty-five centres requires a further R100 million of expansion equity and drawdown of the R150 million expansion facility, taking peak funded capital to about R395 million and total committed capital (including the standby revolver) to R620 million. Investors should size their commitment to the full journey, not the opening raise.

14.2 Key assumptions

The model is built on explicit, testable assumptions, summarised below and documented in full in Appendix B.

Assumption	Basis
Revenue & EBITDA	Sponsor targets, preserved exactly
SA corporate tax	27%, with post-2022 80% assessed-loss cap
Prime / repo rate	10.5% / 7.0% (SARB, July 2026)
Term loan A	R150m @ 13.0% (prime+2.5), 7y, 1y principal grace
Expansion facility B	R150m @ 13.5% (prime+3.0), drawn Y2–Y4
Revolving facility	R50m @ 13.5%, medical-scheme receivables
Depreciation — equipment	9-year straight-line
Depreciation — fit-outs / IT / mobile	12 / 5 / 7-year straight-line
Receivables / inventory / payables	18% / 3% / 8% of revenue
WACC	13.1% (blended equity & after-tax debt)
Exit multiple	8.5× EV/EBITDA (Year 5)

14.3 Capital expenditure and depreciation

Year 1 deploys R275 million of fixed capital — imaging equipment, fit-outs, IT and mobile units, plus a R20 million brand-launch intangible. Expansion capital of roughly R90–120 million a year in Years 2–4 funds the regional and national rollout. Depreciation is computed per asset vintage on the lives above, producing a rising, front-loaded charge that is the principal reason the early years show accounting losses despite healthy EBITDA.

Figure 14. *Capital expenditure phasing: initial platform versus expansion (R million).*

R millions	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Fixed capex	275	90	120	95	70
Depreciation	31.8	42.1	55.9	66.9	74.9
Amortisation	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0
Total D&A	35.8	46.1	59.9	70.9	78.9
Net PP&E (year-end)	243.2	291.1	355.2	383.3	378.4

Figure 15. *Depreciation and amortisation charge, Years 1–5 (R million).*

14.4 Projected income statement

The re-derived income statement applies full D&A, cash interest on the modelled debt and South African tax with the assessed-loss cap. EBITDA margins expand from 18.9% to 32.1% as utilisation matures; EBIT turns positive in Year 3 and net profit follows.

R millions	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	95	185	320	480	710
EBITDA	18	46	92	145	228
EBITDA margin	18.9%	24.9%	28.7%	30.2%	32.1%
Depreciation & amortisation	35.8	46.1	59.9	70.9	78.9
EBIT	(17.8)	(0.1)	32.1	74.1	149.1
Net interest	19.5	23.6	28.4	31.2	30.0
Profit before tax	(37.3)	(23.7)	3.7	42.9	119.1
Taxation	0.0	0.0	0.2	2.3	25.8
Net profit after tax	(37.3)	(23.7)	3.5	40.6	93.3

Figure 16. *Year 5 profit bridge: revenue to net profit (R million).*

Figure 17. *Margin progression: EBITDA, EBIT and net margin (%).*

The single most important disclosure in this plan is the gap between the sponsor’s illustrative net-profit line and the independently re-derived figures. The sponsor shows profits from Year 1; the re-derived model, loading full depreciation of the R170 million equipment base and cash interest on the debt, shows losses of about R37 million and R24 million in Years 1 and 2 before profitability from Year 3, reaching roughly R93 million by Year 5 against the sponsor’s R142 million.

Figure 18. *Net profit: sponsor illustration versus independent re-derivation (R million).*

Analyst flagRe-derived net profit is materially below the sponsor’s illustrative figures

In every year the re-derived net profit sits below the sponsor’s illustrative line, most starkly in the ramp years, where the sponsor shows profits and the model shows losses. The divergence is explained almost entirely by depreciation and financing cost that the illustrative figures appear not to fully load. Critically, the early losses are depreciation-heavy and largely non-cash: the business is EBITDA- and operating-cash-positive throughout. Investors should underwrite the re-derived numbers.

14.6 Projected balance sheet

The balance sheet integrates the capex, depreciation, debt and working-capital schedules. It ties to zero in every year, verified by an automated assertion in the model, with equity rebuilt by retained earnings from Year 3 as profitability returns.

R millions (year-end)	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Cash	11.2	21.9	27.8	28.4	50.7
Receivables	17.1	33.3	57.6	86.4	127.8
Inventory	2.9	5.5	9.6	14.4	21.3
Net PP&E	243.2	291.1	355.2	383.3	378.4
Net intangibles	16.0	12.0	8.0	4.0	0.0
Total assets	290.3	363.9	458.2	516.5	578.3
Payables	7.6	14.8	25.6	38.4	56.8
Total debt	150.0	185.0	220.0	225.0	175.0
Equity	132.7	164.1	212.6	253.1	346.5
Total liab. + equity	290.3	363.9	458.2	516.5	578.3

Figure 19. *Balance sheet: assets versus liabilities and equity (R million).*

14.7 Cash flow and liquidity

Operating cash flow is positive from Year 1, the early losses being non-cash, and grows strongly as utilisation matures. Investing cash flow reflects the phased rollout; financing cash flow captures the two equity rounds, the two debt tranches and their amortisation. Cash never falls below the R8 million minimum, and the R50 million revolver remains undrawn as standby headroom.

R millions	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Operating cash flow	(13.8)	10.8	45.9	90.7	142.3
Investing cash flow	(295.0)	(90.0)	(120.0)	(95.0)	(70.0)
Closing cash	11.2	21.9	27.8	28.4	50.7

Figure 20. *Operating versus investing cash flow (R million).*

Figure 21. *Liquidity: cash and available revolver headroom (R million).*

14.8 Working capital

Working capital is dominated by the medical-scheme receivable cycle. Receivables build to about 18% of revenue as volumes scale; inventory (contrast media and consumables) is light at 3%; payables offset at 8%. Net working capital therefore grows with revenue, and the revolving facility is sized to bridge the 30–60 day settlement lag so that growth is never held back by payment timing.

Figure 22. *Working-capital components and net working capital (R million).*

R millions	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Receivables (18%)	17.1	33.3	57.6	86.4	127.8
Inventory (3%)	2.9	5.5	9.6	14.4	21.3
Payables (8%)	7.6	14.8	25.6	38.4	56.8
Net working capital	12.3	24.1	41.6	62.4	92.3

14.9 Debt structure and coverage

Total debt peaks at R225 million in Year 4 before amortising. Debt service coverage is the key credit metric: it sits just below 1.0× in the two ramp years (0.92× and 0.95×) and recovers to 1.7× and above from Year 3. The sub-unity ramp-year coverage is anticipated and structured for.

Figure 23. *Debt outstanding by facility, year-end (R million).*

R millions	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Term loan A (close)	150	125	100	75	50
Expansion facility B (close)	0	60	120	150	125
Revolver (close)	0	0	0	0	0
Total debt	150	185	220	225	175
Debt service	19.5	48.5	53.4	56.2	80.0
DSCR (x)	0.92x	0.95x	1.72x	2.58x	2.85x

Figure 24. *Debt service coverage ratio, Years 1–5.*

Key findingDSCR dips below 1.0× in the ramp — mitigated, not ignored

Coverage of 0.92× and 0.95× in Years 1 and 2 means EBITDA alone does not fully cover debt service in the ramp. Three structural features close the gap: a one-year principal grace on Term Loan A (so Year 1 service is interest-only), a funded debt-service reserve account (DSRA) equal to six months’ service, and R50 million of undrawn revolver headroom. Coverage recovers decisively to 1.7×+ from Year 3. Lenders should require the DSRA and a cash-sweep covenant as conditions of the facility.

Figure 25. *Leverage: gearing and net debt / EBITDA, Years 1–5.*

14.10 Returns and valuation

On the re-derived cash flows and an 8.5× EV/EBITDA exit on Year-5 EBITDA (a R1,938 million terminal enterprise value), the project generates a five-year NPV of about R442 million at a 13.1% WACC, a project IRR near 27% and an equity IRR of about 55%, for an equity money multiple of roughly 6.7× on the R270 million of total equity invested. The initial platform raise is recovered on a cumulative operating-cash basis within the plan horizon.

Figure 26. *Headline investment returns.*

Return metric	Value
NPV @ 13.1% WACC	R442m
Project IRR (unlevered)	27.4%
Equity IRR (levered, to exit)	54.6%
Equity money multiple (MOIC)	6.72×
Terminal value (8.5× EBITDA Y5)	R1938m
Total equity invested	R270m
Peak funded capital	R395m

Figure 27. *Cash payback of the initial platform raise (R million).*

Analyst flagReturns are heavily dependent on the exit multiple

The 8.5× terminal value accounts for the great majority of equity value, as is typical for a growth-stage asset still reinvesting heavily at Year 5. At a 6× exit the enterprise terminal value falls from about R1.94 billion to R1.37 billion and equity returns compress materially. The returns above are therefore best read as exit-contingent: they assume LuminaScanX reaches Year 5 at scale and is sold to a strategic or private-equity buyer at a full multiple. A trade sale of a national, tech-enabled imaging platform is a realistic exit, but the multiple is the single largest swing factor, see the sensitivity below.

14.11 Scenarios and sensitivity

Two alternative scenarios frame the range. A downside applies a 15% haircut to revenue and a four-point margin compression; an upside applies a 12% revenue uplift and two points of margin expansion. A one-way sensitivity tornado ranks the drivers of NPV.

Figure 28. *Scenario analysis: revenue and EBITDA under base, upside and downside.*

Figure 29. *Exit enterprise value across EV/EBITDA multiples (Year-5 EBITDA).*

Figure 30. *NPV sensitivity — one-way tornado (R million impact).*

NoteThe exit multiple and revenue ramp dominate the sensitivity

The tornado confirms that the exit multiple and the revenue ramp move NPV far more than WACC or capex. This focuses the diligence: underwrite the utilisation ramp and the exit assumption above all else, since these are where value is created or lost.

14.12 Key ratios

Ratio	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
EBITDA margin	18.9%	24.9%	28.7%	30.2%	32.1%
Net margin	(39.2%)	(12.8%)	1.1%	8.5%	13.1%
Return on equity	(28.1%)	(14.4%)	1.6%	16.0%	26.9%
Return on invested capital	(4.6%)	0.0%	5.4%	11.3%	20.9%
Gearing (debt/capital)	53.1%	53.0%	50.9%	47.1%	33.6%
Net debt / EBITDA (x)	7.7x	3.5x	2.1x	1.4x	0.5x
DSCR (x)	0.92x	0.95x	1.72x	2.58x	2.85x

Figure 31. *Return on equity and invested capital (%).*

14.13 Exit strategy

The most probable exit is a trade sale to a strategic acquirer, a private hospital group, a pathology-and-diagnostics platform, or an international imaging operator seeking African scale, or a private-equity buyout, at Year 5 or beyond, when the network is national, digitally differentiated and cash-generative. A pan-African teleradiology platform and the LuminaScan Digital™ data asset add optionality beyond the base valuation. Secondary options include a recapitalisation that returns capital to founding investors while retaining upside, or, at greater scale, a listing.

14.14 Covenants, reporting and investor protections

The capital structure is designed to be lender- and investor-friendly through explicit protections rather than optimistic assumptions. Given the sub-unity debt-service coverage in the ramp years, the senior facility is proposed with the following safeguards, and the model is solved to remain compliant with them:

Debt-service reserve account (DSRA): funded at close and topped up to six months’ debt service, providing a liquidity buffer through the ramp when DSCR is below 1.0×.
Cash-sweep: a percentage of surplus cash above the minimum balance applied to prepay Term Loan A once DSCR sustainably exceeds 1.5×, de-leveraging ahead of schedule.
Financial covenants: net debt / EBITDA ceiling stepping down over time, a minimum liquidity covenant, and a DSCR covenant tested from Year 3 with an equity-cure right.
Expansion-capital condition: drawdown of the expansion facility and Series B is contingent on the four flagships meeting defined utilisation and EBITDA milestones, aligning capital release with demonstrated performance.
Information rights: monthly management accounts, quarterly board reporting, and audited annual financial statements, with agreed KPI reporting on utilisation, DSCR, receivable days and cash.

StrengthThe structure funds the ramp before it funds the scale-up

The combination of a one-year principal grace, a funded DSRA and milestone-gated expansion capital means the plan does not ask lenders to fund national scale on faith. The flagship phase must prove itself first; only then is the larger expansion capital released. This sequencing is the single most important protection in the structure.