Project SunRise Oils — Financial Plan
The key assumptions, the projected income statement, EBITDA and margin profile, the projected balance sheet and cash flow, the funding structure and the financial ratios over the plan.
Section 10 · Business Plan
Financial Plan
The key assumptions, the projected income statement, EBITDA and margin profile, the projected balance sheet and cash flow, the funding structure and the financial ratios over the plan.
10.1 Modelling Approach and Assumptions
The financial model is built bottom-up, with revenue projected by
stream (crude oil, refined oil, oilcake, tolling), cost of goods sold
built up from physical inputs (seed, energy, labour, packaging, refining
chemicals), and operating expenses based on departmental headcount and
benchmarked unit costs. The model runs on a monthly basis for Year 1 and
Year 2, and on a quarterly basis from Year 3 onward, with a 10-year
horizon. All figures are presented in nominal South African Rand (ZAR)
unless otherwise stated.
Key Macroeconomic Assumptions
| Assumption | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation % | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| ZAR/USD (period-avg) | 18.50 | 18.85 | 19.10 | 19.40 | 19.70 |
| SARB repo rate % | 7.50% | 7.25% | 7.00% | 6.75% | 6.75% |
| Prime lending rate % | 11.00% | 10.75% | 10.50% | 10.25% | 10.25% |
| Effective corporate tax rate % | 27.0% | 27.0% | 27.0% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
Operational Assumptions
| Driver | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Sunflower seed price | R8,750/MT in Y1, escalating by CPI thereafter, with ±15% sensitivity tested |
| Crude oil pricing | R28,500/MT in Y1; tracks import parity (palm + sunflower blend) |
| Refined oil pricing (B2B) | R32,800/MT in Y1; +CPI annually |
| Refined oil pricing (B2C) | R65.6/L wholesale equivalent in Y1; +CPI annually |
| Oilcake pricing | R5,800/MT in Y1; correlated to soybean meal and CPI |
| Crushing oil-extraction rate | 38% in Y1 ramping to 38.5% in Y3 |
| Oilcake yield | 55% (lower in Y1 due to optimisation, plateau by Y2) |
| Crushing capacity utilisation | 62% Y1 → 78% Y3 → 92% Y5 |
| Refining capacity utilisation | 55% Y1 → 85% Y3 → 95% Y5 |
| Energy intensity | 295 kWh/MT in Y1, 250 kWh/MT by Y3 (post energy-recovery) |
| Working capital (days) | Inventory 65d / Receivables 42d / Payables 35d |
| Maintenance capex | 2.5% of property, plant & equipment per annum |
10.2 Revenue Build
Revenue grows at a 5-year CAGR of 34%, driven primarily by capacity
utilisation ramp (volume) and a measured price uplift (CPI plus modest
mix premium as the consumer brand develops). The mix evolves from a
crude-oil-heavy weight in Year 1 (50% of revenue) toward a more balanced
split by Year 5, with refined oil at 40%, crude at 37%, and oilcake at
22%.
10.3 Projected Profit & Loss
| ZAR Million | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 570 | 930 | 1,310 | 1,587 | 1,840 | 34% |
| Crude sunflower oil (B2B) | 285 | 410 | 525 | 612 | 690 | 24% |
| Refined & bottled oil (B2C) | 120 | 285 | 480 | 615 | 745 | 58% |
| Sunflower oilcake | 165 | 235 | 305 | 360 | 405 | 25% |
| Cost of goods sold | (410) | (642) | (878) | (1,047) | (1,196) | |
| Gross profit | 160 | 288 | 432 | 540 | 644 | 42% |
| Gross margin % | 28.1% | 31.0% | 33.0% | 34.0% | 35.0% | |
| Operating expenses | (82) | (120) | (156) | (182) | (212) | |
| Marketing & sales | (32) | (56) | (82) | (97) | (113) | |
| General & admin | (30) | (42) | (54) | (62) | (73) | |
| Other operating expenses | (20) | (22) | (20) | (23) | (26) | |
| EBITDA | 78 | 168 | 276 | 358 | 432 | 53% |
| EBITDA margin % | 13.9% | 18.2% | 21.4% | 22.6% | 23.4% | |
| Depreciation & amortisation | (48) | (65) | (72) | (76) | (78) | |
| EBIT | 30 | 103 | 204 | 282 | 354 | 85% |
| Net interest expense | (19) | (38) | (42) | (42) | (40) | |
| Profit before tax | 11 | 65 | 162 | 240 | 314 | |
| Tax (27%) | (3) | (17) | (34) | (44) | (56) | |
| Net profit after tax | 8 | 48 | 128 | 196 | 258 | 138% |
| Net margin % | 1.4% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 14.0% |
10.4 EBITDA & Margin Profile
EBITDA margin expands from 13.9% in Year 1 to 23.4% in Year 5 — a 950
bps improvement driven by capacity utilisation, energy-intensity
reduction, mix shift toward higher-margin refined oil and consumer
brands, and operating leverage on a substantially fixed cost base.
10.5 Projected Balance Sheet
| ZAR Million | Y0 Open | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | ||||||
| Non-current assets | ||||||
| Property, plant & equipment | 350 | 720 | 745 | 720 | 685 | 640 |
| Intangible assets & goodwill | 25 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 20 |
| Long-term receivables | 0 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| Total non-current assets | 375 | 753 | 779 | 756 | 721 | 676 |
| Current assets | ||||||
| Inventory (seed, WIP, finished goods) | 85 | 142 | 195 | 248 | 285 | 320 |
| Trade & other receivables | 62 | 95 | 142 | 178 | 210 | 240 |
| Cash & cash equivalents | 40 | 55 | 85 | 145 | 230 | 350 |
| Total current assets | 187 | 292 | 422 | 571 | 725 | 910 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 562 | 1,045 | 1,201 | 1,327 | 1,446 | 1,586 |
| EQUITY & LIABILITIES | ||||||
| Equity | ||||||
| Share capital & premium | 180 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 | 430 |
| Retained earnings | 62 | 70 | 118 | 246 | 442 | 700 |
| Reserves | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| Total equity | 254 | 512 | 562 | 692 | 890 | 1,150 |
| Non-current liabilities | ||||||
| Long-term borrowings (senior) | 80 | 290 | 256 | 200 | 138 | 70 |
| Long-term borrowings (DFI) | 60 | 200 | 184 | 162 | 138 | 108 |
| Deferred tax | 12 | 18 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 34 |
| Total non-current liabilities | 152 | 508 | 462 | 388 | 306 | 212 |
| Current liabilities | ||||||
| Trade & other payables | 85 | 145 | 192 | 235 | 268 | 295 |
| Short-term borrowings (WC line) | 40 | 50 | 50 | 45 | 30 | 15 |
| Current portion of long-term debt | 25 | 30 | 50 | 65 | 70 | 78 |
| Tax payable | 6 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 32 |
| Total current liabilities | 156 | 235 | 304 | 363 | 393 | 420 |
| TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES | 562 | 1,255 | 1,328 | 1,443 | 1,589 | 1,782 |
10.6 Projected Cash Flow
| ZAR Million | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPERATING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| EBITDA | 78 | 168 | 276 | 358 | 432 |
| Working capital movement | (32) | (45) | (52) | (38) | (34) |
| Tax paid | (3) | (17) | (34) | (44) | (56) |
| Other operating items | (2) | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Net cash from operations | 41 | 110 | 196 | 284 | 352 |
| INVESTING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Capital expenditure (expansion) | (510) | (240) | (50) | (38) | (32) |
| Maintenance capex | (15) | (19) | (22) | (24) | (26) |
| Working capital deposits / other | (8) | (3) | (4) | (2) | (2) |
| Net cash from investing | (533) | (262) | (76) | (64) | (60) |
| FINANCING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Equity issued | 250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Senior debt drawn / (repaid) | 320 | (24) | (36) | (52) | (68) |
| DFI debt drawn / (repaid) | 230 | (6) | (12) | (14) | (20) |
| WC line drawn / (repaid) | 10 | 0 | (5) | (15) | (15) |
| Interest paid | (60) | (58) | (53) | (47) | (40) |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (50) |
| Net cash from financing | 750 | (88) | (106) | (128) | (193) |
| NET CHANGE IN CASH | 258 | (240) | 14 | 92 | 99 |
| Opening cash balance | 40 | 298 | 58 | 72 | 164 |
| Closing cash balance | 298 | 58 | 72 | 164 | 263 |
| Free cash flow to firm | (492) | (152) | 120 | 220 | 292 |
10.7 Capital Structure & Debt Service
The capital structure is engineered to balance senior security
(commercial debt) with patient capital (DFI / blended) and equity
returns. Total debt at funding close is ZAR 600 million, comprising ZAR
320 million senior commercial debt (10-year tenor, 24-month
interest-only grace) and ZAR 230 million blended DFI debt (12-year
tenor, 24-month grace), plus a ZAR 50 million revolving working-capital
facility. Equity contribution is ZAR 250 million.
Debt Service Profile
| Item (ZAR M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening senior debt | 320 | 320 | 302 | 266 | 228 |
| Opening DFI debt | 230 | 230 | 224 | 212 | 198 |
| Interest expense | 60 | 58 | 53 | 47 | 40 |
| Principal repayment | 0 | 24 | 48 | 52 | 55 |
| Total debt service | 60 | 82 | 101 | 99 | 95 |
| Operating cash flow | 60 | 145 | 248 | 325 | 392 |
| DSCR (x) | 1.00 | 1.78 | 2.45 | 3.28 | 4.13 |
10.8 Investment Returns
Under the base case, the project generates a project IRR of 22.4%
(10-year horizon, terminal exit assumed at 7x EBITDA in Year 10) and an
equity IRR of 31.7%, with equity payback achieved by Year 4.3. Net
present value (NPV) at a 14% discount rate is ZAR 412 million on a
project basis.
| Return metric | Base case | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Project IRR (10-yr, post-tax) | 22.4% | Terminal exit at 7x Y10 EBITDA |
| Equity IRR (10-yr, post-tax) | 31.7% | Reflects modest leverage uplift |
| Project NPV @ 14% WACC | ZAR 412 M | Aligned to SA agri-processing WACC band |
| Equity NPV @ 18% cost of equity | ZAR 268 M | Reflects equity-specific risk loading |
| Equity payback period | 4.3 years | Cumulative free cash flow basis |
| Project payback period | 5.8 years | Including initial CAPEX recovery |
| ROIC (Year 5) | 18.5% | EBIT × (1-tax) ÷ invested capital |
| ROE (Year 5) | 26.2% | Net income ÷ avg shareholders’ equity |
| Average DSCR (Y1–Y5) | 2.15x | Comfortably above lender 1.30x threshold |
| Net debt / EBITDA (Y3) | 1.72x | Targeting ≤ 1.5x by Y4 |
10.9 Sensitivity Analysis
The model is most sensitive to the spread between sunflower seed
input cost and crude oil output price, reflecting the underlying margin
economics of the crushing-and-refining business. A 10% uplift in crude
oil price translates into a ZAR 72 million Year-3 EBITDA upside, while
an equivalent uplift in seed price translates into a ZAR 65 million
downside. ZAR/USD volatility of ±10% has an asymmetric impact (R38
million each way), with the Company a net beneficiary of ZAR weakness
given the substitution effect on imports.
10.10 Break-even Analysis
At steady-state cost structure, the consolidated business breaks even
at approximately 23% capacity utilisation — comfortably below the Year-1
utilisation projection of 62%. This provides strong downside protection
against demand shortfalls, drought-driven seed-supply constraints, or
other operational disruptions.
10.11 Scenario Analysis
Three scenarios have been modelled: (i) base case (the financial
profile presented above), (ii) downside case (15% lower volumes, 10%
lower prices, 12% higher seed costs from drought), and (iii) upside case
(10% higher volumes via accelerated SADC export, 8% higher refined oil
pricing on premium positioning, 5 percentage points lower energy cost
from solar performance).
| Metric (Year 3) | Downside | Base | Upside | Δ Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ZAR M) | 1,015 | 1,310 | 1,510 | +/- 22% |
| EBITDA (ZAR M) | 165 | 276 | 362 | +/- 35% |
| EBITDA margin % | 16.3% | 21.4% | 24.0% | |
| DSCR (x) | 1.42 | 2.05 | 2.65 | |
| Equity IRR (10-yr) | 18.2% | 31.7% | 39.5% |
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Project SunRise Oils (Pty) Ltd.