Project SunRise Oils Business Plan › Section 4 › Market Analysis

4.1 Market Sizing — Top-down

The total addressable market (TAM) for the Company spans crude
sunflower oil sold B2B to refiners and FMCG manufacturers, refined and
bottled retail oil, food-service oil, and sunflower oilcake sold to feed
manufacturers. The aggregated TAM is estimated as follows:

Total Addressable Market (TAM) — South Africa, 2025

Within this ZAR 19.85 billion TAM, the serviceable addressable market
(SAM) is concentrated in segments where Project SunRise Oils has the
technical and logistical capability to compete profitably. The SAM is
estimated at ZAR 11.4 billion across South Africa and the immediately
adjacent SADC export markets (Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mozambique,
Eswatini, Lesotho).

4.2 Customer Segmentation

B2C / Retail Consumers

Refined and bottled sunflower oil is a daily-use kitchen staple for
the overwhelming majority of South African households. Lower-LSM
households are particularly oil-intensive in their consumption patterns,
with cooking oil featuring in more than 90% of weekly grocery baskets.
Pricing sensitivity is high in the 750ml–2L pack sizes, with retailer
house brands competing aggressively on shelf with mid-tier branded
alternatives. The Company will play in the value-and-mid-tier shelf
positions, anchoring on a co-manufacture relationship for retailer house
brands plus its own branded mid-tier label.

B2B / Food-Service & FMCG

Industrial customers — food manufacturers (snacks, baked goods, ready
meals), restaurant chains, hospital and institutional kitchens —
purchase oil in 20L jerricans, 1,000L flexi-tanks, and tanker volumes.
These customers are quality-driven, with consistent specifications, free
fatty acid (FFA) ceilings, smoke-point standards, and fully traceable
supply being the price of entry. They are typically less price-sensitive
than retail consumers and value supply reliability above all.

Animal-Feed Manufacturers

Sunflower oilcake is sold into the South African animal-feed
industry, which has total feed-protein demand of approximately 1.6
million tonnes annually. Soybean meal and sunflower meal together
account for ~85% of feed-protein usage, with sunflower meal favoured in
poultry, dairy and beef rations for its fibre and amino acid profile.
Major feed manufacturer customers include Meadow Feeds, Epol, AFGRI
Animal Feeds, Premier Feed Mills, and a long tail of regional
feedlots.

Regional Export Customers (SADC)

Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Mozambique are immediate target
export markets. Botswana, Zimbabwe and Namibia are already the top three
destinations for South African sunflower seed exports — the same
logistics corridors and customs frameworks support refined oil exports.
Local refining capacity in these markets is limited, creating a
structural import demand for branded and unbranded refined sunflower oil
from a South African origin. AfCFTA tariff reductions further enhance
the cost advantage.

4.3 Demand Drivers

• Population growth: South Africa population expected to reach 64
  million by 2030 (from 60.6 million in 2024), generating ~3% annual
  structural demand growth at constant per-capita levels.
• Urbanisation and processed-food penetration: urban share rising
  from 68% (2024) toward 72% by 2030, with corresponding processed-food
  consumption uplift.
• Health-positioning: sunflower oil’s heart-healthy unsaturated fat
  profile (vs palm) supports a long-run consumption-mix shift.
• Animal-feed demand: poultry sector (broiler & layer)
  consumption growing at 3.5–4% annually, lifting derived demand for
  sunflower oilcake.
• Regional integration: AfCFTA progressively reduces intra-Africa
  tariffs, creating arbitrage opportunities for SA refiners selling into
  SADC and East Africa.

4.4 Pricing Dynamics

Sunflower seed pricing on SAFEX (the JSE Commodity Derivatives
Market) ranged between R8,000 and R9,000 per tonne through 2024, against
an estimated average production cost of R10,000 per hectare and yields
of 1.5–2.0 t/ha — implying robust farm-gate gross margins. Refined oil
retail pricing ranges from R85 to R125 per 2L bottle depending on brand
tier, retailer mix, and seasonality. Crude oil B2B pricing tracks import
parity for palm and crude sunflower at port, adjusted for inland
freight.

Indicative Price Build-up — Refined Sunflower Oil (per tonne)

4.5 Distribution Channels

The Company will operate a multi-channel distribution architecture,
balancing direct relationships with national retailers,
wholesale-and-cash-and-carry chains, food-service distributors, and
dedicated B2B sales for FMCG manufacturers. The channel mix has been
engineered to ensure no single retail customer represents more than 18%
of consolidated revenue at steady state, mitigating concentration
risk.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Project SunRise Oils (Pty) Ltd.