Orchard development (bearer plants)

351

234

117

78

0

Packhouses & cold storage

168

168

84

0

0

Processing facilities

35

122

122

70

0

Logistics & distribution

72

96

72

0

0

Nursery infrastructure

80

48

32

0

0

Renewable energy systems

36

48

36

0

0

Technology systems

44

33

33

0

0

Sustaining capex

0

15

45

105

135

Total cash capex

786

765

542

253

135

Depreciation (bearer + SL)

31

74

142

160

171

Gross PP&E & bearer assets

786

1,551

2,092

2,345

2,480

Accumulated depreciation

31

105

247

407

578

Interest expense

37

101

134

131

104

Debt (closing)

650

1,100

1,230

1,050

750

Taxation

10

18

52

133

247

Bearing hectares

900

1,800

3,100

4,500

5,800

Yield factor (of mature)

35%

45%

60%

78%

92%

Avocado output (t)

3,465

8,910

20,460

38,610

58,696

Avocado export revenue (R m)

260

496

861

1,310

1,869

Revenue per hectare (R)

688,889

655,556

661,290

693,333

767,241

EBITDA margin

16.8%

20.5%

22.8%

25.1%

26.7%

EBIT margin

11.8%

14.2%

15.9%

19.9%

22.9%

Net margin

4.2%

4.2%

6.8%

11.5%

15.0%

ROCE

3.0%

5.4%

9.6%

17.8%

27.3%

DSCR (x)

2.52x

2.22x

1.66x

1.75x

2.00x

Interest cover (x)

2.0x

1.7x

2.4x

4.7x

9.8x

Net debt / EBITDA (x)

-2.54x

1.88x

1.88x

1.11x

0.46x

Avocado price (base / range)

US$2.00/kg base; US$1.40–2.60/kg tested

Rand / US dollar

R18.5 per US$

Orchard footprint / mature yield

5,800 ha / ~11 t/ha; ~300 trees/ha

Bearing ramp

900 ha (Y1) to 5,800 ha (Y5); phased vintages

Debt : equity

55 : 45 (R1,320m : R1,080m)

Cost of debt / tenor

11.5%; grace on principal Yrs 1–2

Tax

27% with 80% assessed-loss set-off cap

Depreciation

Bearer plants over 20 yrs from bearing; plant by vintage

Working capital / dividends

14% of revenue; 30% NPAT, deferred to Yr 3

Exit

7.5x EV/EBITDA on Year-5 EBITDA

Bearer plant

A living plant (here, an avocado tree) cultivated to bear produce over multiple periods; capitalised and depreciated once bearing.

CFADS

Cash flow available for debt service.

DSCR

Debt-service cover ratio — CFADS divided by debt service.

DFI

Development finance institution (e.g. IDC, Land Bank, DBSA, AfDB).

FOB

Free on board — the export price at the port of loading.

GEM®

A patented avocado cultivar complementing Hass, valued for yield and shelf life.

GlobalG.A.P.

Global standard for good agricultural practice; a baseline export certification.

J-curve

The delayed-yield profile of a perennial crop — low early output rising to a mature plateau.

Packhouse

Facility grading, sorting and packing fresh produce for market.

ROCE

Return on capital employed — NOPAT divided by capital employed.

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

620

1,180

2,050

3,120

4,450

EBITDA

104

242

468

782

1,190

Depreciation

-31

-74

-142

-160

-171

Net interest

-37

-101

-134

-131

-104

Taxation

-10

-18

-52

-133

-247

Net profit after tax

26

49

140

359

668

BALANCE SHEET

Net PP&E & bearer assets

755

1,446

1,845

1,938

1,902

Cash

914

644

352

179

197

Total assets

1,756

2,255

2,483

2,554

2,722

Total equity

1,106

1,155

1,253

1,504

1,972

Senior debt

650

1,100

1,230

1,050

750

CASH FLOW

Operating

-30

45

160

368

653

Investing

-786

-765

-542

-253

-135

Financing

1,730

450

88

-288

-500

Closing cash

914

644

352

179

197