VinoVista Estates — Sensitivity Analysis
The following sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of key variable changes on Year 5 EBITDA and project IRR:
Section 12 · Business Plan
Sensitivity Analysis
The following sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of key variable changes on Year 5 EBITDA and project IRR:
The following sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of key variable changes on Year 5 EBITDA and project IRR:
| Scenario | Revenue Impact | EBITDA (Y5) | EBITDA Margin | IRR | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | – | R19.8M | 39.6% | 24% | 5.0 yrs |
| Grape Price −10% | (R3.8M) | R16.0M | 33.2% | 20% | 5.5 yrs |
| Yield −15% (drought) | (R5.5M) | R14.3M | 30.1% | 18% | 6.0 yrs |
| Wine Sales −20% | (R3.6M) | R16.2M | 33.6% | 20% | 5.5 yrs |
| Labour Costs +15% | – | R17.6M | 35.2% | 22% | 5.2 yrs |
| Rand Weakens 10% | +R2.5M | R22.3M | 42.5% | 27% | 4.5 yrs |
| Worst Case Combined | (R8.0M) | R10.5M | 25.0% | 14% | 7.0 yrs |
| Best Case Combined | +R5.0M | R24.8M | 45.1% | 30% | 4.0 yrs |
The analysis demonstrates that even under adverse conditions, the project maintains positive EBITDA and remains viable. The diversified revenue model provides natural hedging against single-source risk.
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