1. Establish

1–4

Incorporate at CIPC; appoint the executive team; compile and submit the NCR Form 2 credit provider application; register with the FIC and appoint the Information Officer; draft credit policy, affordability methodology and the Risk Management and Compliance Programme; begin platform build

NCR certificate of registration issued — no origination before this gate

2. Build and pilot

5–8

Complete origination, decision and ledger platform; integrate bureau, bank data, identity and DebiCheck; independent legal review of agreements and quotations; controlled Flex pilot at restrictive cut-offs

First 500 loans written; first payment default rate within tolerance

3. Prove

9–14

Scale Flex volume; open Term to graduating Flex customers; build first own-book vintage curves; establish the external collections panel

Two full Flex vintages observed; scorecard recalibrated on own data

4. Scale

15–24

Launch the employer partnership channel; recalibrate cut-offs; grow Term share of the book; draw the senior debt facility

Monthly operational break-even achieved

5. Institutionalise

Year 3

Series A raise on demonstrated credit performance; scale the book; formalise IFRS 9 own-book models; first independent compliance audit

Full-year profitability; Series A closed

6. Compound

Years 4–5

Grow the book toward R284 million; drive cost to serve down; extend the product range within existing NCA categories

Sustained profitability and a clean regulatory record

NCR certificate of registration

Every commercial activity in the business

Section 40(3) prohibits offering or extending credit before registration. An agreement written without it is void under section 89(2)(d)

Pricing caps enforced in the ledger

The first loan written

A cap breach is unlawful conduct. Enforcing it in code rather than by policy makes the error impossible rather than unlikely

Bureau and bank data integrations

Any credit decision

The affordability assessment is the evidentiary requirement of section 81 as well as the strongest credit signal

DebiCheck mandate authentication

Any collection

Authenticated mandates are the single largest improvement in collection integrity available in this market

Two full Flex vintages

The Series A and the scale-up

A scorecard recalibrated on own-book data is the asset the Series A is priced against. It takes calendar time and cannot be bought

Independent legal review of agreements

Scaling beyond the pilot

Pre-agreement statements, quotations and disclosure under sections 92, 93 and 101 are where a reckless credit finding starts

Senior facility credit approval

Book growth beyond available equity

Lenders to specialist lenders require trading history and eligible receivables. It is drawn from Year 2, not before

Gate 1: NCR certificate issued

4

Certificate of registration in hand, registration number displayed on all agreements, quotations and advertising

No origination whatever. An agreement written before this date is void under section 89(2)(d) and the seed capital is at risk with no asset to show for it

Gate 2: pilot performance

8

First 500 loans written at restrictive cut-offs; first payment default within tolerance by channel

Do not scale volume. A first payment default problem at 500 loans is a fraud or scorecard failure that becomes unaffordable at 20 000

Gate 3: vintages observed

14

Two full Flex vintages run to maturity; scorecard recalibrated on own-book data

Do not open Term at scale and do not approach the Series A. The scorecard is the asset being priced

Gate 4: operational break-even

24

Monthly operational break-even achieved; senior facility drawn and performing

The Year 3 case does not hold. Halt growth and preserve the seed capital while policy is re-cut

Gate 5: full-year profitability

36

Full-year profit after tax positive; clean regulatory record; Series A closed

Growth capital is unavailable and the book grows only from retained earnings and the existing facility