XTXFX Business Plan — Break-Even and Credit Sensitivity
Break-even at a 15.3% credit loss rate against an 11.6% base case — the single number the whole investment turns on.
Break-Even and Credit Sensitivity
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market Context and Opportunity
- 3. Regulatory Framework and NCR Registration
- 4. Products and Pricing
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Credit Policy and Risk Management
- 7. Technology and Operations
- 8. Go-to-Market
- 9. Governance and Team
- 10. Financial Plan
- 11. Funding Structure and Capital
- 12. Break-Even and Credit Sensitivity
- 13. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 14. Risk Management
- 15. Implementation Roadmap
- 16. Investor Returns and Exit
- 17. Key Performance Indicators
- 18. Key Assumptions
- 19. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Unit Economics and Volume Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: NCR Registration Checklist
- E. Appendix E: Risk Register
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
Every other variable in this model is second order relative to credit performance. This section isolates it.
|
Scenario |
Credit loss, % of disbursed |
Year 5 profit after tax |
Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Outperformance |
8.5% |
R26.8m |
Scorecard performs materially better than benchmark; the employer channel scales faster than planned |
|
Base case |
11.6% |
R16.0m |
Mature-book assumptions achieved from Year 3 on the modelled product mix |
|
Stress |
13.5% |
R8.0m |
Scorecard underperforms by roughly a sixth; the business remains viable but the Series A is harder to raise |
|
Severe stress |
15.5% |
(R1.2m) |
Marginal. Growth halted and the book allowed to run down while policy is re-cut |
|
Break-even |
15.3% |
(R0.2m) |
Business consumes capital without generating return; recapitalisation or wind-down |
12.1 What the headroom means operationally
|
Measure |
Value |
What it implies |
|---|---|---|
|
Base case loss rate |
11.6% of disbursements |
R55.6m of Year 5 write-offs on R480.0m disbursed |
|
Break-even loss rate |
15.3% |
R73.4m of write-offs — R17.8m more than plan |
|
Headroom |
3.7 percentage points |
A deterioration of roughly a third in the loss rate |
|
Value of one point of loss rate |
R4.8m of Year 5 profit before tax |
The single most valuable operating metric in the business |
|
Peak accumulated deficit |
(R21.5m) |
Funded from the seed round with the R5m cash floor intact |
|
Cash floor maintained |
R5.0m |
Senior debt is drawn to hold this level throughout |
One percentage point of credit loss rate is worth R4.8 million of Year 5 profit before tax, roughly 27 per cent of it. There is no other variable in this plan with that leverage, and no amount of cost discipline compensates for it: eliminating the entire fixed cost base of R30 million would offset only 6.3 points of loss rate deterioration, and the business would have no compliance function, no credit function and no platform.