XTXFX Business Plan — Financial Plan

Five-year projections: revenue building to R138.5m, profit after tax of R16.0m and a gross loan book reaching R283.6m.

Financial Plan

Jump to section

On this page

10.1 Key assumptions
10.2 Origination volumes and product mix
10.3 Projected income statement
10.4 Projected cash flow statement
10.5 Projected balance sheet

10.1 Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Basis
Repo rate	6.75%	SARB repurchase rate as at August 2026
Unsecured interest ceiling	24.85%	(repo × 2.2) + 10% under NCA section 103. No cap relief assumed over the plan period
Flex pricing	R3 500 over 4 months at 4.5% a month	Blended across first and subsequent loans within a calendar year, within the 5% and 3% prescribed limits
Term pricing	R18 000 over 15 months at 23.0% a year	1.85 percentage points below the regulated ceiling
Initiation fee	R165 plus 10% above R1 000, capped at R1 050	Prescribed maximum, excluding VAT
Monthly service fee	R60 a month	Prescribed maximum, excluding VAT
Mature write-offs	13.0% Flex, 10.5% Term	Vintage multipliers of 1.35x in Year 1 and 1.15x in Year 2 reflect scorecard immaturity
Customer acquisition cost	R380 per new customer	Blended across performance, referral, employer and aggregator channels
Direct cost to serve	R80 per loan	Bureau enquiry, bank data retrieval, identity verification, DebiCheck mandate and communications
External collections	1.2% of amounts disbursed	Panel of external agents and attorneys at a defined arrears stage
Cost of debt	14.0% a year	Senior facility at approximately prime plus 350 basis points for a specialist lender with a limited track record
Platform depreciation	R6.5m over 5 years	Straight line from Year 1
Expected credit loss provision	6% of gross book	IFRS 9 three-stage model with forward-looking overlays
Corporate tax	27%	South African rate, with the section 20 limitation on assessed loss utilisation applied
Minimum cash balance	R5.0 million	Senior debt is drawn to maintain this floor

10.2 Origination volumes and product mix

Figure 12. Origination volume and value.

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Loans disbursed	6 550	20 600	39 200	57 500	75 000
Value disbursed, R million	30.9	109.8	227.1	353.5	480.0
Average loan size	R4 718	R5 330	R5 793	R6 148	R6 400
Flex loans	6 000	18 000	33 001	46 999	60 000
Term loans	550	2 600	6 199	10 501	15 000
Term share by number	8.4%	12.6%	15.8%	18.3%	20.0%
Term share by value	32.0%	42.6%	49.1%	53.5%	56.3%

10.3 Projected income statement

R million	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Interest income	3.9	14.5	30.6	48.4	66.3
Initiation fees	3.1	10.2	20.2	30.5	40.6
Monthly service fees	1.9	6.7	13.5	20.7	27.9
Credit life commission	0.1	0.6	1.5	2.6	3.6
Total revenue	9.1	32.0	65.9	102.2	138.5
Credit losses	(5.1)	(15.1)	(26.7)	(41.2)	(55.6)
Variable costs	(2.7)	(7.5)	(12.4)	(16.3)	(19.7)
Fixed operating costs	(11.0)	(16.2)	(21.6)	(26.2)	(30.0)
EBITDA	(9.8)	(6.8)	5.1	18.5	33.2
EBITDA margin	-107.7%	-21.2%	7.8%	18.1%	23.9%
Depreciation	(1.3)	(1.3)	(1.3)	(1.3)	(1.3)
Operating profit / (loss)	(11.1)	(8.1)	3.8	17.2	31.9
Interest expense	—	(2.4)	(3.1)	(5.8)	(14.2)
Profit / (loss) before tax	(11.1)	(10.5)	0.7	11.5	17.6
Taxation	—	—	—	(0.6)	(1.6)
Profit / (loss) after tax	(11.1)	(10.5)	0.7	10.8	16.0
Net margin	-122.0%	-32.8%	1.1%	10.6%	11.6%
Cumulative profit after tax	(11.1)	(21.5)	(20.9)	(10.0)	6.0

Figure 13. Revenue against the cost stack.

Three presentation points. Depreciation on the R6.5 million platform is shown as a line item, because an income statement that omits it produces an EBITDA figure that does not reconcile to profit after tax. Interest expense is shown below the operating line even though it is economically a cost of funding the book, so that EBITDA means what it says. And interest expense is non-zero in every year the facility is drawn, including Year 3, where the Series A repays most of the facility but does not eliminate the charge for the year.

The Year 1 assessed loss shelters Year 3 entirely

Losses of R11.1 million in Year 1 and R10.5 million in Year 2 accumulate to R21.6 million of assessed loss. Under the section 20 limitation the set-off in any year is capped at the higher of R1 million or 80 per cent of taxable income, so the Year 3 profit before tax of R0.7 million is sheltered in full and no tax is payable. The remaining balance shelters R9.2 million of Year 4 income and R11.7 million of Year 5 income before being exhausted. The result is a cash tax charge of R0.6 million in Year 4 and R1.6 million in Year 5 against profits before tax of R11.5 million and R17.6 million, an effective rate of 5.4 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively. That relief is worth R6.7 million of cash across the two years, and it is a real feature of the structure rather than a modelling convenience.

10.4 Projected cash flow statement

R million	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA	(9.8)	(6.8)	5.1	18.5	33.2
Movement in payables	1.1	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.6
Taxation paid	—	—	—	(0.6)	(1.6)
Operating cash flow after tax	(8.6)	(6.0)	6.0	18.6	32.1
Investment in the net loan book	(12.4)	(38.4)	(63.8)	(74.6)	(77.4)
Platform capital expenditure	(6.5)	—	—	—	—
Interest paid	—	(2.4)	(3.1)	(5.8)	(14.2)
Equity raised	45.0	—	85.0	—	—
Movement in senior debt	0.0	34.3	(24.0)	61.8	59.5
Net movement in cash	17.5	(12.5)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Opening cash	—	17.5	5.0	5.0	5.0
Closing cash	17.5	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0

Figure 15. Cash flow — the book absorbs cash faster than operations generate it.

The defining feature of this cash flow statement is the loan book line. Investment in the net book absorbs R12.4 million in Year 1 and R77.4 million in Year 5, against operating cash flow of minus R8.6 million and plus R32.1 million respectively. A lending business that is growing consumes cash by construction: every loan written is cash out today against instalments over four to fifteen months. Operating cash flow turns positive in Year 3, but the business remains cash-absorbing at the total level throughout the plan and is funded to be.

10.5 Projected balance sheet

R million, at year end	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Gross loan book	13.2	54.0	121.9	201.3	283.6
Expected credit loss provision	(0.8)	(3.2)	(7.3)	(12.1)	(17.0)
Net loan book	12.4	50.8	114.6	189.2	266.6
Technology platform, net of depreciation	5.2	3.9	2.6	1.3	0.0
Cash and cash equivalents	17.5	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
Total assets	35.1	59.7	122.2	195.5	271.6
Share capital	45.0	45.0	130.0	130.0	130.0
Accumulated profit / (deficit)	(11.1)	(21.5)	(20.9)	(10.0)	6.0
Total shareholders’ funds	33.9	23.5	109.1	120.0	136.0
Senior debt facility	—	34.3	10.2	72.0	131.5
Trade and other payables	1.1	1.9	2.8	3.5	4.1
Total liabilities	1.1	36.2	13.0	75.5	135.6
Total equity and liabilities	35.1	59.7	122.2	195.5	271.6

Figure 16. Balance sheet — asset composition.

The net loan book is 98 per cent of total assets by Year 5. That single ratio is the most important thing on the balance sheet: this is a lending business whose asset is a portfolio of consumer receivables, not a technology business whose asset is a platform. The platform is carried at R1.3 million net of depreciation by Year 5 against a R266.6 million net book, and an acquirer is buying the book, the scorecard that produced it and the registration that permits it.

Figure 17. Cumulative profit after tax and the peak deficit.

Shareholders’ funds fall from R33.9 million at the end of Year 1 to R23.5 million at the end of Year 2 as the accumulated deficit reaches its peak of R21.5 million, then recover to R136.0 million by Year 5 on the strength of the Series A and accumulated earnings. The seed round is sized to absorb that deficit with the R5 million minimum cash floor intact throughout.

Previous section9. Governance and Team

Next section11. Funding Structure and Capital