XTXFX Business Plan — Key Performance Indicators
The origination, vintage loss, collection and unit economics indicators monitored monthly, with intervention thresholds.
Key Performance Indicators
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market Context and Opportunity
- 3. Regulatory Framework and NCR Registration
- 4. Products and Pricing
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Credit Policy and Risk Management
- 7. Technology and Operations
- 8. Go-to-Market
- 9. Governance and Team
- 10. Financial Plan
- 11. Funding Structure and Capital
- 12. Break-Even and Credit Sensitivity
- 13. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 14. Risk Management
- 15. Implementation Roadmap
- 16. Investor Returns and Exit
- 17. Key Performance Indicators
- 18. Key Assumptions
- 19. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Unit Economics and Volume Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: NCR Registration Checklist
- E. Appendix E: Risk Register
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
The following are the operating measures on which this business should be managed. Three of them, the credit loss rate, first payment default and the vintage loss curve, carry more information about whether the investment case is holding than any revenue figure, because revenue rises with origination volume whether or not the loans are collectable.
|
Indicator |
Definition |
Target |
Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Credit loss rate |
Write-offs ÷ amounts disbursed |
Below 11.6% at maturity |
Break-even is 15.3% — the single variable that decides the business |
|
First payment default |
Loans defaulting on instalment one ÷ loans disbursed |
Below 3.0% by channel |
The earliest available signal of scorecard or fraud failure |
|
Vintage loss curve |
Cumulative write-off by month on book, by origination month |
Within the modelled band |
Reported monthly by channel and score band to the credit committee |
|
Cost per funded loan |
Marketing spend ÷ loans funded, by channel |
Below R380 blended |
Never cost per lead; aggregator channels look cheap on leads and expensive on funded loans |
|
Repeat share of origination |
Repeat loans ÷ total loans |
Above 72% by Year 5 |
Repeat lending carries near-zero acquisition cost and materially lower risk |
|
Fee income share of revenue |
Initiation and service fees ÷ revenue |
Monitored at 43% |
Prescribed in nominal rand and unchanged since 2016; erodes in real terms every year |
|
Affordability evidence completeness |
Decisions with full documentary evidence retained ÷ decisions |
100% |
A reckless credit finding at scale is the catastrophic regulatory downside |
|
Collection rate at day 30 |
Instalments collected by day 30 ÷ instalments due |
Above 92% |
The overwhelming majority of recoverable value is recovered in the first thirty days |
|
Debt service and covenant headroom |
Facility utilisation against eligible receivables |
Well inside limits |
The book self-liquidates within fifteen months, so an origination freeze converts it to cash quickly |
|
Regulatory return compliance |
Statutory returns filed on time ÷ returns due |
100% |
Conditions of registration are ongoing obligations, not once-off hurdles |