XTXFX Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every volume, pricing, loss, funding and cost assumption behind the model, stated so an investor can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market Context and Opportunity
- 3. Regulatory Framework and NCR Registration
- 4. Products and Pricing
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Credit Policy and Risk Management
- 7. Technology and Operations
- 8. Go-to-Market
- 9. Governance and Team
- 10. Financial Plan
- 11. Funding Structure and Capital
- 12. Break-Even and Credit Sensitivity
- 13. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 14. Risk Management
- 15. Implementation Roadmap
- 16. Investor Returns and Exit
- 17. Key Performance Indicators
- 18. Key Assumptions
- 19. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Unit Economics and Volume Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: NCR Registration Checklist
- E. Appendix E: Risk Register
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
- 18.1 Pricing, products and volume
- 18.2 Cost, capital and funding
18.1 Pricing, products and volume
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Repo rate |
6.75% |
6.75% |
Held flat over the plan period; no cap relief assumed |
|
Unsecured interest ceiling |
24.85% |
24.85% |
(repo × 2.2) + 10% under NCA section 103 |
|
Term interest rate |
23.0% |
23.0% |
1.85 points inside the lawful ceiling |
|
Flex interest rate |
4.5% a month |
4.5% a month |
Blended within the 5% and 3% short-term prescribed limits |
|
Loans disbursed |
6 550 |
75 000 |
Across both products |
|
Value disbursed |
R30.9m |
R480.0m |
Average loan rising from R4 718 to R6 400 |
|
Term share by value |
32.0% |
56.3% |
Graduation from Flex drives the mix shift |
|
New customer share |
74% |
28% |
Repeat lending becomes the engine of origination |
|
Credit loss rate |
16.5% |
11.6% |
Product mix at 13.0% Flex and 10.5% Term, with vintage multipliers of 1.35x and 1.15x |
|
Closing gross loan book |
R13.2m |
R283.6m |
Fifteen-month weighted life on the Term book |
18.2 Cost, capital and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Customer acquisition cost |
R380 per new customer |
Blended across performance, referral, employer and aggregator channels |
|
Direct cost to serve |
R80 per loan |
Bureau enquiry, bank data retrieval, identity verification, DebiCheck mandate and communications |
|
External collections |
1.2% of amounts disbursed |
Panel of external agents and attorneys at a defined arrears stage |
|
Fixed operating costs |
R11.0m rising to R30.0m |
Headcount from 14 to 45; compliance budget R1.4m rising to R2.8m |
|
Technology platform |
R6.5m |
Depreciated straight line over 5 years |
|
Seed equity |
R45.0m |
At close |
|
Series A equity |
R85.0m |
Year 3, on two full vintages of demonstrated performance |
|
Senior debt |
Scaling to R131.5m at 14.0% |
Approximately prime plus 350 basis points; drawn against eligible receivables |
|
Minimum cash balance |
R5.0m |
Senior debt is drawn to maintain this floor |
|
Expected credit loss provision |
6% of gross book |
IFRS 9 three-stage model with forward-looking macroeconomic overlays |
|
Corporate tax |
27% with assessed losses carried forward |
Section 20 limitation capping set-off at the higher of R1m or 80% of taxable income |
|
Revenue recognition |
Lifetime revenue of the loans disbursed in each year |
Interest, initiation fees, service fees and credit life commission over the life of the agreement |