Tiptop Market — Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
Figure 11.1: Scenario Analysis – IRR & NPV
Section 11 · Business Plan
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
Figure 11.1: Scenario Analysis – IRR & NPV
| Scenario | Y5 GMV | Y5 Revenue | Y5 EBITDA | IRR | NPV (15%) | Cash + |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear (-25%) | R3,375M | R641M | R96M | 8% | R45M | Year 4 |
| Base Case | R4,500M | R855M | R171M | 28% | R280M | Year 3 |
| Bull (+25%) | R5,625M | R1,069M | R267M | 48% | R580M | Year 2 |
Figure
Figure 11.1: Scenario Analysis – IRR & NPV
Even under bear-case assumptions, the investment generates a positive 8% IRR and R45M NPV. The base case delivers 28% IRR with R280M NPV. Key sensitivity variables in order of impact: GMV growth rate, blended take rate, CAC efficiency, and fulfilment cost per order.
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