SummitPentagon Premier Roofing Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every volume, price, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a lender can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Why Most Roofing Companies Fail to Make Money
- 3. Insurance Is the Defining Cost
- 4. The Economics of One Roof
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Customer Acquisition
- 7. Service Mix and the Commercial Question
- 8. Crews, Subcontractors and the Certificate Trap
- 9. Funding: SBA and What Beats It
- 10. Working Capital
- 11. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 12. Licensing, Bonding and Compliance
- 13. People and Production
- 14. Financial Projections
- 15. Break-Even
- 16. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 17. Risk Management
- 18. Implementation Timeline
- 19. Returns
- 20. Key Performance Indicators
- 21. Key Assumptions
- 22. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 21.1 Volume, price and margin
- 21.2 Cost, capital and funding
21.1 Volume, price and margin
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Crews |
1 |
5 |
Added only when existing crews are booked four weeks ahead for three months |
|
Replacements completed |
33 |
290 |
58 per crew at maturity |
|
Average replacement ticket |
$14,600 |
$17,411 |
Rising with mix, architectural upgrades and consumer financing |
|
Residential gross margin |
— |
34.6% |
Earned by job costing, not by quoting high |
|
Repairs gross margin |
— |
40.0% |
Minimum charges; the best percentage margin in the business |
|
Commercial gross margin |
— |
37.2% |
From Year 3; less price-sensitive, longer sales cycle |
|
Blended gross margin |
31.8% |
35.4% |
At the upper end of the 25 to 40 per cent industry band |
|
Cost per sold job |
$1,576 |
$1,303 |
Falls as referrals and neighbourhood density replace paid media |
|
Share of jobs consumer-financed |
28.0% |
55.0% |
Raises ticket and collapses the collection cycle |
21.2 Cost, capital and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Materials |
39.8% falling to 37.8% of revenue |
Replacement-weighted mix; taken off from aerial measurement |
|
Crew labor |
28.2% falling to 26.8% of revenue |
Bare wage; 31.1% fully loaded with workers’ compensation |
|
Workers’ compensation |
18.5% falling to 16.0% of crew payroll |
NCCI class code 5551; improves on claims history |
|
Marketing |
9.7% falling to 5.9% of revenue |
The largest single overhead line at $378k in Year 5 |
|
Sales commission |
4.8% of revenue |
Paid on signed contracts |
|
Owner compensation |
$62,000 rising to $154,000 |
A real salary from Year 1, deducted before EBITDA |
|
Total overhead |
52.5% falling to 27.1% of revenue |
Below the 30 to 45 per cent industry band by design |
|
Total capital expenditure |
$736,000 across five years |
Trucks, trailers, tool packages, commercial equipment and systems |
|
Owner equity |
$165,000 |
At inception |
|
Loans and facilities |
$965,000 |
Nine instruments; see Appendix C |
|
Supplier trade credit |
30 days rising to 52 days |
$346,000 by Year 5, free and never drawn |
|
Days sales outstanding |
19.8 falling to 10.7 days |
Falls as the consumer-financed share rises |
|
Federal income tax |
21% of taxable profit |
Net operating losses under the 80% limitation; state tax additional |