SummitPentagon Premier Roofing Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across operational, financial, safety and market risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Why Most Roofing Companies Fail to Make Money
- 3. Insurance Is the Defining Cost
- 4. The Economics of One Roof
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Customer Acquisition
- 7. Service Mix and the Commercial Question
- 8. Crews, Subcontractors and the Certificate Trap
- 9. Funding: SBA and What Beats It
- 10. Working Capital
- 11. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 12. Licensing, Bonding and Compliance
- 13. People and Production
- 14. Financial Projections
- 15. Break-Even
- 16. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 17. Risk Management
- 18. Implementation Timeline
- 19. Returns
- 20. Key Performance Indicators
- 21. Key Assumptions
- 22. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gross margin erosion |
High |
Very High |
Four points removes $257k of Year 5 EBITDA and produces no event that forces attention. Every job costed before sale from aerial takeoff; weekly job costing on completed work against the estimate, by crew; the published penalty for absent job costing is 4 to 7 net margin points. |
Owner |
|
Job volume shortfall |
Medium |
Very High |
20% below plan removes $455k because overhead does not shrink with the work. Booking-depth gate of four weeks for three months before any crew is added; cost per sold job measured by channel. |
Owner |
|
Average ticket pressure |
High |
High |
5% below plan removes $321k. Never the cheapest bid; sell on measurement accuracy, warranty and schedule certainty rather than price. |
Salespeople |
|
Material price volatility |
High |
High |
Asphalt shingle pricing swung nearly one fifth during 2024–2025 on refinery outages; lead times ran 8 to 12 weeks. Price from current cost; quote validity periods; two distributor accounts for price tension. |
Owner |
|
Serious fall or liability claim |
Low |
Very High |
Class code 5551 is among construction’s highest-rated for fall claim severity. Fall protection on every roof without exception; documented training; umbrella and excess liability carried from Year 1; prompt incident closure. |
Crew foremen |
|
Workers’ compensation rate deterioration |
Medium |
High |
A single claim resets the experience modification rate for three years, reversing the 18.5% to 16.0% improvement worth $43k a year. Safety programme, records and subcontractor certificate discipline. |
Owner |
|
Uninsured subcontractor at audit |
Medium |
High |
A subcontractor without a current certificate is reclassified as your payroll at the class code 5551 rate. A single uncertified crew paid $180k produces roughly $29k of unbudgeted premium. Payment blocked without a current certificate on file. |
Administration |
|
Supplier credit withdrawn |
Medium |
Very High |
$346k of free working capital lost overnight and not replaceable at any price. Distributor terms treated as the most senior obligation after payroll; draw the line of credit rather than stretch the distributor. |
Owner |
|
Crew availability |
High |
High |
Vacancy ran 12% in 2025 despite wages at $28 an hour, sharpest in colder regions. Recruit ahead of need, train from within, treat crew retention as seriously as customer retention. |
Production manager |
|
SBA 7(a) declined or delayed |
Medium |
High |
Requires trading history and a 1.10x coverage ratio; the plan meets it only from Year 4. Supplier accounts and consumer finance opened first so the working capital requirement is already funded; the third crew deferrable by a year. |
Owner |