Quick and Efficient Gas Business Plan — Implementation Roadmap

The phases from site and licence to full trading, critical dependencies, conditions precedent to drawdown and the gate at each stage.

Implementation Roadmap

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13.1 Development programme
13.2 Critical dependencies
13.3 Conditions precedent to drawdown
13.4 What each phase costs and what is recoverable

Figure 23. Implementation roadmap — negotiate the supply agreement before the lease.

13.1 Development programme

Phase	Months	Activities	Gate
1. Secure supply and consent	1 to 5	Register the company and secure tax compliance and VAT; negotiate the wholesale supply agreement with a winter delivery commitment; identify the site and obtain municipal consent use in principle; fire department pre-approval and SANS 10087 compliant design	Supply agreement signed; consent use and fire approval in principle
2. Build and licence	5 to 10	Sign the lease and commit the funding; install the bulk vessel, hardstand, bunding and fencing; fit the filling bay, scales, fire protection and hazardous-area electrics; recruit and register the SAQCC gas filler	Filling licence and Certificate of Conformity issued
3. Open and fill	10 to 22	Open and build the household refill base; establish the accessory counter, appliance range and installation service; sign the first spaza, takeaway and restaurant delivery accounts	Above 31 fills a day; accessory gross profit above 15% of total
4. Service the debt	Years 2 to 3	Second SAQCC registration; approve a second wholesaler; commence full debt service after the capital moratorium	Debt service cover above 1.30 times
5. Reach maturity	Years 4 to 5	Grow to 47 fills a day; extend the delivery radius and account base; renegotiate the supply agreement annually against the gazetted price	47 fills a day; cover above 2.0 times

13.2 Critical dependencies

Dependency	What it gates	Why it cannot be accelerated
Wholesale supply agreement	The entire economics	The buying price is the largest lever in the model and the break-even headroom is only 12%
Municipal consent use for hazardous substance storage	The filling licence, and therefore trading	Site-specific and cannot be appealed into existence. A site that fails on zoning cannot be rescued
Fire department permit	Lawful operation	Local authority approval follows a compliant design and a physical inspection
SANS 10087 compliant design	Vessel siting, separation distances and layout	Separation distances are physical. A site that cannot accommodate them is not a site
Certificate of Conformity	Lawful operation	Issued under the Pressure Equipment Regulations by a registered practitioner after installation
SAQCC-registered filler	Any filling at all	A staffing constraint, not a paperwork one. The shop cannot lawfully fill without one on site
Winter delivery commitment	Peak season trading	4.9 deliveries in July against 1.2 in January, on a vessel that cannot be stockpiled
Funding committed in full at drawdown	Surviving Year 1	Operations consume R414 624 in Year 1 while the loan begins amortising

13.3 Conditions precedent to drawdown

Four conditions, all settled before the lease is signed

One. A written wholesale supply agreement with a licensed distributor at or below the assumed delivered price of R30.80 a kilogram, with a stated winter delivery commitment and a defined relationship to the gazetted maximum retail price. Two. Municipal consent use for hazardous substance storage and fire department approval, both obtained in principle before the lease is signed. Three. Funding of R4 041 000 committed in full at drawdown — R2 100 000 equity and R1 941 000 term loan — rather than a smaller facility supplemented later, so the Year 1 trading loss is carried without a second approach to the lender. Four. Debt covenants tested from Year 3, when cover first clears 1.30 times, rather than from Year 1 when it is negative by construction.

13.4 What each phase costs and what is recoverable

Phase	Cash committed	Cumulative	What is recoverable if the project stops here
1. Secure supply and consent	R74 000	R74 000	Licence and approval fees only. The cheapest point at which to stop, and the point at which the two decisive questions are answered
2. Build and licence	R3 025 000	R3 099 000	The vessel, filling bay, vehicle and cylinder float have a resale market; hardstand, bunding and hazardous-area electrics recover poorly. The largest sunk position
3. Open and fill	R530 000	R3 629 000	Year 1 trading losses and stock. Nothing recoverable except a licensed, trading site
4. Service the debt	R412 000	R4 041 000	A licensed shop above break-even with a customer base is a saleable business
5. Reach maturity	—	R4 041 000	A licensed refill shop at 47 fills a day, with a supply agreement and an accessory counter

The shape of that table is why the sequencing rule matters so much. Only R74 000 is at risk before the two decisive questions — the delivered price and consent use — are answered, and R3.03 million is committed immediately afterwards. There is no intermediate position. A promoter who signs a lease before securing supply has moved from the first row to the second without answering either question.

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