Quick and Efficient Gas Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as policy.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Business and the Regulated Price
- 3. Licensing, Safety and Compliance
- 4. Market and Customers
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. The Margin Squeeze
- 12. Risk Analysis
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Key Assumptions
- 16. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Volume, Price and Cost Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likely |
Impact |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Wholesale price rises without a matching rise in the cap |
High |
Severe |
The defining risk of a price-capped business. Break-even buying price is R34.39/kg against a planned R30.80 — headroom of 12%. Mitigated only by supply agreement terms and by growing the unregulated accessory business |
|
Licence or consent use refused |
Medium |
Severe |
Without a filling licence and municipal consent the business cannot trade. Mitigated by obtaining an in-principle indication before the lease is signed; there is no fallback |
|
Volume below plan |
High |
High |
Break-even is 30.9 fills a day against a plan of 47. Mitigated by site selection, trading hours and delivery; residual risk high in Year 1 |
|
Illegal decanting competition |
High |
Medium |
Unlicensed operators undercut the capped price with no compliance cost. Cannot be matched on price; compete on fill accuracy, safety and certification |
|
Fire or gas incident |
Low |
Severe |
Catastrophic for people, assets and licence. Mitigated by SANS-compliant design, fire system, trained staff, and insurance conditional on compliance |
|
Winter supply failure |
Medium |
High |
Peak demand needs 4.9 bulk deliveries in July against 1.2 in January. Mitigated by a contractual winter delivery commitment and a second approved supplier |
|
Loss of the SAQCC-registered filler |
Medium |
High |
The shop cannot lawfully fill without one. Mitigated by training a second employee to registration within 18 months |
|
Cash trough in the low season |
High |
Medium |
Year 1 operations consume cash before the winter peak. Mitigated by the committed facility drawn at inception rather than sought later |
|
Regulated price frozen for policy reasons |
Low |
High |
Government has social objectives for LPG affordability. A deliberate margin compression at retail level is possible and cannot be mitigated |
|
Cylinder theft and float loss |
Medium |
Medium |
The cylinder float is R512 000 of capital. Mitigated by deposit systems, marking and stock counts |
|
Warm winter |
Medium |
Medium |
Heating demand is weather-dependent. A mild season removes volume that cannot be recovered later in the year |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Month 3 |
Below 19 fills a day |
Review trading hours, signage and delivery offering before spending on advertising |
|
Month 6 |
Gas margin below R9.00 per kg |
Renegotiate supply or approach a second wholesaler. Do not absorb it quietly |
|
Month 9 |
Accessory gross profit below 15% of total |
The attachment rate is failing; review range, display and staff incentives |
|
Month 12 |
Below 31 fills a day |
The business is below break-even. Engage the lender before covenant testing begins |
|
Any month |
Cash below R100 000 |
Draw against a written plan, not to fund ordinary losses |
|
Any time |
A reportable safety incident |
Stop filling, investigate, notify insurer and authority. Never trade through an unresolved incident |