Quick and Efficient Gas Business Plan — Appendix B: Volume, Price and Cost Schedules
Detailed volume, regulated price and cost schedules underpinning the revenue build and the gas margin per kilogram.
Appendix B: Volume, Price and Cost Schedules
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Business and the Regulated Price
- 3. Licensing, Safety and Compliance
- 4. Market and Customers
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. The Margin Squeeze
- 12. Risk Analysis
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Key Assumptions
- 16. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Volume, Price and Cost Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- B.1 Volume build
- B.2 Monthly seasonality, Year 1
- B.3 Price, cost and margin path
- B.4 Break-even by year
- B.5 The margin squeeze
B.1 Volume build
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cylinder fills a trading day |
27.3 |
37.6 |
44.2 |
47.0 |
49.4 |
|
Trading days |
310 |
310 |
310 |
310 |
310 |
|
Total fills |
8 463 |
11 656 |
13 702 |
14 570 |
15 314 |
|
Average kilograms a fill |
16.9 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
|
Kilograms sold |
143 000 |
197 200 |
231 700 |
246 500 |
258 900 |
|
Tonnes sold |
143.0 |
197.2 |
231.7 |
246.5 |
258.9 |
|
Bulk deliveries a year |
34.3 |
47.3 |
55.6 |
59.2 |
62.2 |
B.2 Monthly seasonality, Year 1
|
Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kilograms sold |
5 190 |
5 688 |
7 523 |
10 427 |
15 103 |
18 689 |
|
Share of the year |
3.4% |
3.8% |
5.0% |
6.9% |
10.0% |
12.4% |
|
Bulk deliveries required |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
|
Month |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kilograms sold |
20 293 |
18 180 |
14 170 |
11 533 |
10 757 |
13 454 |
|
Share of the year |
13.4% |
12.0% |
9.4% |
7.6% |
7.1% |
8.9% |
|
Bulk deliveries required |
4.9 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
B.3 Price, cost and margin path
|
R per kilogram |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Maximum retail price, escalated at 4.5% |
42.00 |
43.89 |
45.87 |
47.93 |
50.09 |
|
Effective gas cost, escalated at 4.7% |
31.36 |
32.83 |
34.38 |
35.99 |
37.68 |
|
Gas margin |
10.64 |
11.05 |
11.48 |
11.93 |
12.40 |
|
Margin as a share of the capped price |
25.3% |
25.2% |
25.0% |
24.9% |
24.8% |
B.4 Break-even by year
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Operating costs, R |
2 405 104 |
2 530 169 |
2 661 738 |
2 800 148 |
2 945 756 |
|
Less accessory gross profit, R |
(684 750) |
(872 988) |
(1 031 914) |
(1 156 492) |
(1 273 860) |
|
Net fixed costs to cover with gas, R |
1 720 354 |
1 657 181 |
1 629 824 |
1 643 656 |
1 671 896 |
|
Break-even volume, tonnes |
161.7 |
150.0 |
142.0 |
137.8 |
134.8 |
|
Break-even fills a trading day |
30.9 |
28.6 |
27.1 |
26.3 |
25.7 |
|
Planned volume, tonnes |
143.0 |
197.2 |
231.7 |
246.5 |
258.9 |
|
Margin of safety |
-13.1% |
23.9% |
38.7% |
44.1% |
47.9% |
B.5 The margin squeeze
|
Per kilogram |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Regulated ceiling price |
R42.00 |
R43.89 |
R45.87 |
R47.93 |
R50.09 |
|
Cost of gas into the shop, at a two-point divergence |
R31.36 |
R33.46 |
R35.70 |
R38.10 |
R40.65 |
|
Gross margin per kg |
R10.64 |
R10.43 |
R10.16 |
R9.83 |
R9.44 |
|
Margin as % of price |
25.3% |
23.8% |
22.2% |
20.5% |
18.8% |
|
Margin under the base case |
R10.64 |
R11.05 |
R11.48 |
R11.93 |
R12.40 |