Aether Living — Sensitivity Analysis & Scenarios
The sensitivity analysis and scenario planning — base, upside and downside cases across sales pricing, absorption, build costs, interest rates and capital-deployment timing.
Section 19 · Business Plan
Sensitivity Analysis & Scenarios
The sensitivity analysis and scenario planning — base, upside and downside cases across sales pricing, absorption, build costs, interest rates and capital-deployment timing.
19.1 Sensitivity Analysis
The financial model has been subjected to comprehensive sensitivity
analysis to identify the principal drivers of investment returns. The
following tornado chart presents the impact on levered equity IRR of
independent variation in eight key model variables, holding all other
variables constant.
The analysis confirms that the most material drivers of returns are
unit-sales pricing (which can move IRR by ±5.1 percentage points for a
±10% price shift), construction cost (±4.2pp for ±10% shift), and sales
velocity (±3.8pp for ±15% shift). Interest rates and rental yields are
secondary but still material drivers. The model is materially less
sensitive to FX and energy revenue, reflecting the natural hedges built
into the operating model.
19.2 Scenario Analysis
Three discrete scenarios have been modelled to stress-test the
financial plan under varying macro and operational conditions.
| Metric | Base Case | Upside | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Price Growth | 5.0% p.a. | 7.0% p.a. | 2.5% p.a. |
| Construction Inflation | 5.5% p.a. | 4.5% p.a. | 7.0% p.a. |
| Sales Velocity (units/mo) | 95 | 120 | 70 |
| Prime Rate (Y3) | 10.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% |
| Stabilised Occupancy | 94% | 96% | 88% |
| Year 10 Revenue | R 19.6bn | R 23.8bn | R 14.5bn |
| Year 10 EBITDA | R 5.80bn | R 7.85bn | R 3.55bn |
| Year 10 EBITDA Margin | 30% | 33% | 24% |
| Levered IRR | 24% | 32% | 14% |
| Equity Multiple | 3.8x | 5.1x | 2.2x |
The Downside scenario continues to deliver positive equity returns
(IRR of 14% and multiple of 2.2x) — a critical indicator of the
underlying robustness of the integrated platform model. This robustness
derives from the recurring revenue streams (energy, water, digital,
estate management) that continue to generate income even when
residential sales velocity is materially impaired.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aether Living Developments (Pty) Ltd.