GreenH2 Fertiliser Business Plan › Section 1 › Executive Summary

GreenH2 Fertiliser Holdings proposes to develop, finance, construct
and operate an integrated low-carbon nitrogen complex
at Kriel in Mpumalanga — a world-scale facility producing blue ammonia,
urea and ammonium nitrate, integrated with carbon capture and a
dedicated 120 MW solar array. The Project addresses two structural
problems at once: chronic dependence on imported nitrogen fertilisers,
and the need to decarbonise heavy industry while preserving industrial
employment in a coal region facing a just transition.

South Africa imports the overwhelming majority of the nitrogen it
consumes. Nitrogen fertilisers represent roughly 64% of fertiliser
import volume and 56% of import value^[3], with urea alone
accounting for about 40–42% of all fertiliser imports^[3]. By
substituting more than a million tonnes of imported product each year
and exporting merchant ammonia and hydrogen into fast-growing global
low-carbon markets, GreenH2 is positioned to become a national
industrial champion under the country’s gazetted Green Hydrogen National
Programme.^[13]

The opportunity at a glance

• Import substitution: a domestic, low-carbon
  source of urea and ammonium nitrate replacing volatile,
  foreign-currency-denominated imports for commercial farms, co-operatives
  and the mining-explosives sector.
• Energy-transition exposure: blue ammonia and
  merchant hydrogen aligned to the Hydrogen Society Roadmap target of
  500,000 t of hydrogen per year by 2030 and a project pipeline exceeding
  R800bn.^[5]
• Decarbonisation economics: integrated carbon
  capture lowers exposure to a carbon tax rising from R236/t in 2025 to
  R462/t by 2030, while generating tradeable
  credits.^[9]
• Diversified revenue: five streams — urea,
  merchant ammonia, ammonium nitrate, carbon credits and industrial
  hydrogen — materially reduce single-commodity risk.

Headline financial metrics

The Project is funded with approximately R37 billion (around R32
billion of hard capital cost plus interest during construction, working
capital and reserves), structured as roughly 60% senior project debt and
40% equity. This Plan seeks a R5.0 billion seed and project-development
round that funds the Company through financial close, at which point the
balance of equity and senior debt is drawn.

Investment thesis

GreenH2 offers institutional capital a rare combination of defensive,
inflation-linked domestic demand (food security and mining inputs) and
structural, exportable upside (the global low-carbon ammonia and
hydrogen transition). Unit economics are anchored by local feedstock and
renewable power, and the development sits within a national
strategic-infrastructure framework that affords expedited
authorisations. The base case delivers a project IRR of 22.3% and an NPV
of R11.17bn at a 14.5% discount rate, with debt-service cover
strengthening from 1.31x at first repayment to 1.91x by Year 10.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of GreenH2 Fertiliser Holdings (Pty) Ltd.