GreenH2 Fertiliser — Exit Strategy
The exit strategy and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the project horizon.
Section 15 · Business Plan
Exit Strategy
The exit strategy and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the project horizon.
The Project generates attractive cash yields once operational, but
the principal value-creation event for early equity is the re-rating
from development risk to an operating, contracted, cash-generative
asset. Several credible exit pathways exist, each supported by the
valuation range set out in the Financial Plan.
15.1 Exit pathways
- Strategic sale: disposal to a global fertiliser,
chemicals or energy major seeking low-carbon ammonia and African market
access. - Infrastructure / DFI recapitalisation: sale of
de-risked, yielding equity to long-dated infrastructure and
development-finance investors. - Listing: a JSE (or dual) listing once the asset
has an operating track record and a defined export-expansion
pipeline. - Dividend recap: partial monetisation through
refinancing once leverage has stepped down and cover is strong.
15.2 Illustrative seed-investor outcome
On the base case, mature Year-6 EBITDA of R7.36bn supports an
enterprise value of roughly R62.6bn at 8.5x. After deducting net debt at
the relevant exit point, the resulting equity value implies a
substantial uplift on early-stage capital. The table below is
illustrative and depends on the final post-financial-close cap table,
dilution and exit timing; actual outcomes will vary.
Table 25. Illustrative enterprise-value range at
exit (Year-6 EBITDA basis).
| Case | Multiple | Enterprise value |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 7.0x | R51.5bn |
| Base | 8.5x | R62.6bn |
| High | 10.0x | R73.6bn |
Scaling toward export-grade ammonia and hydrogen — in line with the
national roadmap and comparable projects such as Coega — could lift the
strategic value of the platform well beyond the operating-asset
multiples shown here, reflecting the scarcity value of bankable
low-carbon ammonia capacity.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of GreenH2 Fertiliser Holdings (Pty) Ltd.