GreenH2 Fertiliser — Appendices
Supporting appendices - the full ten-year income statement, balance sheet and cash-flow statement, the assumptions register and the glossary underpinning the GreenH2 business plan and financial model.
Section 17 · Business Plan
Appendices
Supporting appendices – the full ten-year income statement, balance sheet and cash-flow statement, the assumptions register and the glossary underpinning the GreenH2 business plan and financial model.
Appendix A — Full income statement (Years 1–10, R billion)
| R bn | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | – | – | – | 7.2 | 13.1 | 19.5 | 20.3 | 21.1 | 21.9 | 22.8 |
| Cost of sales | – | – | – | -5.5 | -7.9 | -11.0 | -11.5 | -11.9 | -12.4 | -12.9 |
| Gross profit | – | – | – | 1.7 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| Opex | – | – | – | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| EBITDA | – | – | – | 1.0 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 8.6 |
| Depreciation | – | – | – | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| Interest | – | – | – | -1.4 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| PBT | – | – | – | -1.8 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Tax | – | – | – | – | – | -0.4 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.4 |
| NPAT | – | – | – | -1.8 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
Appendix B — Full balance sheet (Years 1–10, R billion)
| R bn | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | – | – | 2.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 13.6 | 16.9 |
| Receiv. + inventory | – | – | – | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| PP&E | 2.5 | 5.0 | 19.6 | 31.2 | 29.8 | 28.3 | 26.9 | 25.5 | 24.0 | 22.6 |
| Total assets | 2.5 | 5.0 | 21.6 | 36.5 | 36.9 | 38.2 | 39.1 | 40.4 | 42.0 | 44.1 |
| Payables | – | – | – | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Senior debt | – | – | 11.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 20.8 | 18.9 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 13.2 |
| Total equity | 2.5 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 16.2 | 18.9 | 22.1 | 25.6 | 29.5 |
| Liab. + equity | 2.5 | 5.0 | 21.6 | 36.5 | 36.9 | 38.2 | 39.1 | 40.4 | 42.0 | 44.1 |
Appendix C — Full cash-flow statement (Years 1–10, R billion)
| R bn | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | – | – | – | -1.4 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Investing | -2.5 | -2.5 | -14.0 | -13.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Financing | 2.5 | 2.5 | 16.0 | 16.0 | – | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| Net cash flow | – | – | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Closing cash | – | – | 2.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 13.6 | 16.9 |
Appendix D — Assumptions register
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Urea / ammonia / AN capacity | 900,000 / 700,000 / 500,000 t p.a. |
| Base prices (urea / ammonia / AN) | R8,000 / R7,500 / R9,000 per t |
| Utilisation Y4 / Y5 / Y6+ | 40% / 70% / 100% |
| Price / cost escalation | 4.0% / 4.5% per annum |
| Variable production cost | ~47% of revenue |
| Fixed production cost (base) | ~R1.7bn p.a. (escalating) |
| Working capital (DSO/DIO/DPO) | 45 / 50 / 40 days |
| Senior debt / equity | ~R22bn / ~R15bn |
| Debt rate / tenor / grace | 11.8% / 12 years / interest-only Y4–Y5 |
| Tax rate | 27% with loss carry-forward |
| Depreciation life | 22 years straight-line |
| Discount rate / exit multiple | 14.5% / 8.0x EBITDA |
Appendix E — Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Blue ammonia | Ammonia produced from hydrocarbons with carbon capture and storage. |
| CCS / capture | Capture and storage or utilisation of CO₂ emissions. |
| COD | Commercial operation date — start of revenue-generating production. |
| DSCR | Debt-service cover ratio — cash available for debt service divided by debt service. |
| EBITDA | Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. |
| FEED | Front-end engineering and design. |
| IDC | Interest during construction (capitalised). |
| IRR / NPV | Internal rate of return / net present value. |
| SIP | Strategic Integrated Project — conferring expedited approvals. |
Appendix F — Sources & references
| Ref | Source |
|---|---|
| [1] | Mordor Intelligence, “Africa Fertilizers Market Size & Share Outlook to 2031” (2026). |
| [2] | IMARC Group, “South Africa Fertilizer Market Size, Share & Growth 2033” (2024). |
| [3] | Agrekon / Taylor & Francis, “Trends and drivers of fertiliser consumption in the South African agricultural industry” (2025). |
| [4] | SA Grain, “Fertiliser industry in SA: this is what it looks like” (2025). |
| [5] | CSIS, “South Africa’s Hydrogen Strategy” (2025); Department of Science & Innovation, Hydrogen Society Roadmap (2021). |
| [6] | Green Hydrogen Organisation, South Africa country profile. |
| [7] | NS Energy, “Coega Green Ammonia Project, South Africa” (2024). |
| [8] | Infrastructure News / SA-H2 Fund, “Commitment to Hive Hydrogen’s Coega Green Ammonia Project” (2025). |
| [9] | National Treasury & Carbon Knowledge Hub, “South Africa’s Carbon Tax” (2025–26). |
| [10] | Fastmarkets, “South Africa to increase carbon offset allowances for carbon tax: Budget 2025” (2025). |
| [11] | Engineering News / Mining Weekly, Omnia Sasolburg nitric-acid complex coverage. |
| [12] | Mail & Guardian; Sasol Chemicals, ammonia and ammonium-nitrate supply. |
| [13] | AllAfrica / Infrastructure South Africa, Green Hydrogen National Programme pipeline (2024). |
| [14] | IndexBox, “Urea Price in South Africa” (2025). |
GreenH2 Fertiliser Holdings (Pty) Ltd · Strictly Private &
Confidential · June 2026
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of GreenH2 Fertiliser Holdings (Pty) Ltd.