AeroSphere Business Plan › Section 3 › Industry & Market Analysis

This section sets out the macro and sector context, quantifies the
addressable market, and frames the demand drivers that underpin
AeroSphere’s projections. The analysis draws on current data from ACSA,
IATA, CAPA and credible South African industry reporting.

3.1 The South African Aviation Market

South Africa operates the most developed aviation system on the
continent. The state-owned Airports Company South Africa (ACSA) manages
the nine principal airports, including the three primary international
gateways. In its 2025 financial year ACSA reported revenue of
approximately R7.9 billion, EBITDA of around R2.9 billion, and an
after-tax profit of roughly R1.1 billion — a strong recovery from the
deep losses of the pandemic years. By the 2025/26 peak season the
network had recovered to approximately 98–99% of its 2019 peak, with
Cape Town International exceeding 11.1 million passengers and George
Airport surpassing 911,000 passengers for the year.

The non-aeronautical detail is particularly instructive. Even within
a state-owned operator, retail revenue grew about 10% year-on-year to
roughly R1.2 billion and property rentals grew about 13% to roughly R1.0
billion in FY2025 — direct evidence of the commercial value pool that a
property- and logistics-oriented private developer is structurally
better placed to monetise.

3.2 Regional & Continental Context

Africa is one of the world’s most attractive long-run aviation
markets. Over the next two decades the continent’s passenger market is
forecast to grow at roughly 4.1% per annum to reach around 411 million
passengers — the world’s third-fastest regional growth rate — with some
forecasts pointing to traffic more than doubling to around 345 million
passengers by 2043. In 2025, African passenger demand grew around 9%
year to date and African carriers led all regions in international
passenger growth. On the cargo side, African airlines recorded
approximately 6% full-year demand growth in 2025 and led all regions in
several individual months, with November 2025 demand up around 15.6%
year-on-year.

Figure 3.1

3.3 Market Sizing — TAM / SAM / SOM

AeroSphere frames its addressable market across three tiers. The
total addressable market (TAM) is the broad Southern African aviation
and airport-linked logistics and property value pool. The serviceable
available market (SAM) is the subset reachable from a Gauteng-anchored
platform serving Gauteng overflow, regional routes and secondary-airport
demand. The serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is the share AeroSphere
realistically expects to capture by Year 7.

Figure 3.2

3.4 Demand Segmentation

AeroSphere’s demand is deliberately diversified across multiple
customer segments, reducing reliance on any single traffic type:

This segmentation is the foundation of the diversified revenue model
detailed in Sections 4 and 8. By serving multiple,
only-partly-correlated demand pools, the platform smooths cyclicality
and improves the stability of the cash flows available to service debt
and reward equity.

3.5 Macroeconomic & PESTEL Environment

A disciplined assessment of the external environment confirms that
the structural drivers of the opportunity outweigh the cyclical
headwinds. The following PESTEL analysis frames the operating context
for a long-duration infrastructure investment.

The single most important macro consideration is the divergence
between robust, recovering demand and lagging infrastructure investment
— precisely the gap that a well-capitalised private operator is
positioned to fill. Currency and interest-rate volatility are real but
manageable risks, addressed through a domestic revenue base, selective
hedging and a conservative capital structure (Section 13).

3.6 Regulatory & Institutional Framework

Aviation in South Africa is regulated principally by the South
African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA), operating within the standards
of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Airport
development additionally engages environmental authorisation, land-use
and municipal planning approvals, customs and border authorities for
international and cargo operations, and air-navigation service
coordination. AeroSphere’s plan front-loads these approvals into Phase
0, securing the necessary authorisations before committing major
construction capital.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of AeroSphere Gateway Holdings (Pty) Ltd.