Apex AeroVentures Global Aviation Business Plan — Financial Plan & Projections

15.1 Basis of preparation

Sponsor headline revenue and EBITDA are preserved exactly as briefed. Everything beneath EBITDA is independently re-derived: component depreciation from the capital-expenditure register (aircraft and fleet on a 16-year life, maintenance hangar and facilities 20-year, ground support equipment 7-year, operations centre and IT 5-year, training academy 15-year, and heavy maintenance 6-year), interest on aircraft-finance debt at 12.75% (prime plus 225 basis points), 27% South African corporate tax with assessed-loss carry-forward, and working capital. The R420 million raise is structured as R170 million of aircraft-finance debt and R250 million of equity; fleet growth is funded principally by additional aircraft debt drawn as aircraft are acquired, with modest follow-on equity to maintain liquidity. The three statements integrate and the balance sheet ties to zero every year, enforced by an automated assertion. All figures are nominal rand millions unless stated.

15.2 Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Basis
Corporate tax rate	27%	SA rate; assessed losses carried forward
Aircraft-finance rate	12.75%	Prime 10.5% + 225bps; secured on fleet
Initial funding	R170m debt / R250m equity	R420m raise; ~40% / 60%
Depreciation	Component approach	Fleet 16-yr; hangar 20-yr; GSE 7-yr; IT 5-yr; academy 15-yr
Working capital	8% of revenue	Contract receivables vs supplier credit
Fleet	10 → 34 aircraft	Grows on aircraft debt + reinvested cash
Repo / prime	7.0% / 10.5%	SARB, mid-2026
Exit valuation	6×–8× EV/EBITDA	Integrated-aviation / services comparables

Analyst flagThe aviation-fleet J-curve: re-derived profit vs the sponsor’s illustrative figures

Preserving revenue and EBITDA exactly, the fully-loaded model produces net profit of approximately −R19m, −R2m, +R18m, +R35m and +R71m across Years 1–5, loss-making in Years 1–2 and, by Year 5, well below the sponsor’s illustrative R148m. The difference is depreciation and interest: an asset-heavy fleet carries heavy depreciation and aircraft-finance interest that exceed operating profit while the fleet is being built and utilisation is ramping. This J-curve is normal and expected for a fleet build-out; it is disclosed rather than smoothed, and it is why the funding structure and reserves matter.

Figure 12. *Net profit after tax: the aviation-fleet J-curve.*

Figure 13. *From EBITDA to net profit: the depreciation & interest drag.*

15.3 Projected profit & loss

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	165	285	445	640	890
EBITDA	28	58	104	160	238
Depreciation	(25.4)	(25.4)	(36.9)	(51.9)	(67.9)
EBIT	2.6	32.6	67.1	108.1	170.1
Interest (aircraft finance)	(21.7)	(34.9)	(48.6)	(61.1)	(72.9)
Profit before tax	(19.1)	(2.4)	18.4	47.0	97.2
Taxation (27%)	0.0	0.0	0.0	(11.9)	(26.2)
Net profit after tax	(19.1)	(2.4)	18.4	35.1	70.9
Net margin	(11.6%)	(0.8%)	4.1%	5.5%	8.0%

Figure 14. *EBITDA and margin trajectory.*

Figure 15. *Illustrative operating economics (per R100 of revenue, at scale).*

15.4 Projected cash flow statement

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA	28	58	104	160	238
Taxation paid	0.0	0.0	0.0	(11.9)	(26.2)
Working-capital movement	(13.2)	(9.6)	(12.8)	(15.6)	(20.0)
Operating cash flow	14.8	48.4	91.2	132.5	191.8
Capital expenditure (fleet & maintenance)	0.0	(138.6)	(178.3)	(184.2)	(196.7)
Interest paid	(21.7)	(34.9)	(48.6)	(61.1)	(72.9)
Debt principal	0.0	(24.7)	(34.3)	(43.1)	(51.5)
Aircraft debt drawn	0.0	104.0	132.0	132.0	136.0
Equity drawn (incl. follow-on)	250.0	10.6	38.1	23.9	0.0
Closing cash	65.1	30.0	30.0	30.0	36.7

Analyst flagLiquidity is engineered — and depends on follow-on equity

Operating cash flow turns positive early, but fleet capex and debt service consume it during the build-out. The plan holds a minimum cash buffer of about R30m by drawing modest follow-on equity (around R73m in total across Years 2–4). Without that committed follow-on capital, the fleet ramp cannot be financed on the R420m alone. This is disclosed as a condition of a prudent structure (Section 16).

Figure 16. *Operating cash flow, debt service and closing cash.*

15.5 Projected balance sheet

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Net property, plant & equipment	323	436	577	709	838
Net working capital	13.2	22.8	35.6	51.2	71.2
Cash & equivalents	65.1	30.0	30.0	30.0	36.7
Total assets	401	488	643	791	946
Aircraft-finance debt	170	249	347	436	520
Share capital	250	261	299	323	323
Retained earnings	(19.1)	(21.5)	(3.1)	32.1	103.0
Total equity	230.9	239.1	295.7	354.6	425.6
Total funding	401	488	643	791	946

StrengthThe balance sheet ties to zero every year

Total assets equal aircraft-finance debt plus equity in every projection year, enforced by an automated assertion (maximum difference: 0.0). The debt is secured against the fleet it finances, and the follow-on equity keeps the structure liquid through the build-out, a fully-integrated, self-consistent three-statement model rather than a set of disconnected tables.

Figure 17. *Balance-sheet build: asset composition.*

15.6 Key financial ratios

The ratio summary distils the plan’s trajectory: expanding EBITDA and net margins as utilisation ramps and the fleet matures, debt-service cover strengthening from a tight Year-2 trough, and leverage that peaks during the build-out before the growing EBITDA base brings it down.

Ratio	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA margin	17.0%	20.4%	23.4%	25.0%	26.7%
Net margin	(11.6%)	(0.8%)	4.1%	5.5%	8.0%
DSCR (x)	1.29×	0.97×	1.25×	1.54×	1.91×
Net debt / EBITDA (x)	3.7×	3.8×	3.0×	2.5×	2.0×
Revenue per aircraft (R m)	16.5	19.0	21.2	22.9	26.2