Ascend Strength & Conditioning Business Plan

Investor-ready coached fitness studio business plan: R7.70m deployed, 613 members across three studios, R12.88m Year 5 revenue at a 28.7% margin.

Ascend Strength & Conditioning — members after a coached small-group training session

Business Plan & Investment Proposal · South Africa

Gym & Fitness Studio Business Plan — South Africa

Ascend Strength & Conditioning (Pty) Ltd · A Retention Business, Not A Facility Business.

Coached small-group strength and conditioning in a suburban commercial or light-industrial
node with secure parking — three studio spaces, nine coaches and 613 members at R1 380 a month at capacity,
alongside personal training and corporate wellness contracts. R7.70 million of capital: R5.30 million
promoter and investor equity and R2.40 million term debt at 13.5 per cent with a twelve-month capital
moratorium.

R7.70mCapital deployed

613Members at capacity

R12.88mYear 5 revenue

4.5%Monthly churn at Year 5

Read the executive summary →

Most gym plans sell floor space. This one is explicit that it is selling retention,
and the sensitivity analysis proves the point more bluntly than any argument could: at 4.5 per cent monthly
churn the business earns R1.61 million cumulatively over five years, and at 6.0 per cent it loses money.
One and a half percentage points separates a good investment from a bad one, and nothing else in the model moves the
answer nearly as far. The mechanics behind that are worth understanding. Membership capacity is 613 across three
studios and is reached in Year 4 — the last two years of the plan add revenue without a single additional
member, purely by holding churn down from 8.5 per cent and lifting average revenue per member from R1,090 to
R1,380. Because overhead is almost entirely fixed, a member retained one month longer is close to pure margin, which
is how EBITDA reaches 28.7 per cent.

The plan at a glance

Six measures that determine whether this studio and its funding stand up.

R7.70mCapital deployed over five yearsR5.30m promoter and investor equity plus R2.40m term debt at 13.5% with a twelve-month capital moratorium.

8.5% → 4.5%Monthly churnThe single number that decides the outcome. At 4.5% the plan earns R1.61m cumulatively; at 6.0% it loses money.

613Members at full capacityAcross three studio spaces, reached in Year 4. Every year after that is retention, not acquisition.

R1 380Average revenue per member a monthFrom R1,090 in Year 1, alongside personal training and corporate wellness contracts.

28.7%Year 5 EBITDA marginOverhead is almost entirely fixed, so a member retained a month longer falls straight through to profit.

4.53xYear 5 debt service coverFrom 1.10x in Year 2. Modest gearing on a fit-out-led capital programme.

The number that decides everything

One and a half percentage points of monthly churn — and what sits on either side of it.

4.5%Monthly churn, base caseThe plan earns R1.61 million cumulatively over five years. A member stays roughly 22 months, and the cost of acquiring them is recovered several times over.

against

6.0%And it loses moneyOne and a half percentage points of churn is the difference between a profitable studio and an unprofitable one. Nothing else in the model moves the answer that far.

Five years of trading

Revenue and EBITDA on the base case. Monthly churn and average revenue per member are the two assumptions that matter most, and both are stressed in Section 12.

Revenue build — members against monthly churn

Members reach capacity at 613 in Year 4 and stay there. Revenue keeps rising because churn falls from 8.5% to 4.5% a month and average revenue per member climbs from R1,090 to R1,380.

Year 1

R3.74m · 339 members · 8.5% churn

Year 2

R7.15m · 409 · 7.0%

Year 3

R9.90m · 587 · 5.8%

Year 4

R12.21m · 613 · 5.0%

Year 5

R12.88m · 613 · 4.5%

EBITDA and margin, Year 2 onward

Year 1 runs an EBITDA deficit of R1.74m while the base is built. Overhead is almost entirely fixed, so a member retained one month longer costs nothing to serve — which is how the margin reaches 28.7%.

Year 2

R0.90m · 12.5%

Year 3

R1.53m · 15.4%

Year 4

R3.23m · 26.4%

Year 5

R3.69m · 28.7%

Why this plan works the way it does

Churn is the model, not a metricLifetime value is the monthly fee divided by churn. At 4.5% a month a member stays about 22 months; at 6.0% barely 17. The plan earns R1.61 million at the first number and loses money at the second.

Capacity is reached in Year 4 and never grows again613 members across three studios, and that is the ceiling. Years 4 and 5 add revenue with no new members at all — entirely through retention and rate.

Fixed overhead makes retention almost pure marginThe coaches, rent and equipment are paid whether a member attends or not. A member retained one extra month costs virtually nothing to serve, which is why EBITDA margin reaches 28.7%.

Coached small groups sit between two failing modelsBig-box gyms compete on price and lose members to indifference; personal training is unaffordable at scale. Coached small groups carry the accountability that keeps people coming back.

Consumer protection shapes the contractSouth African membership terms sit under the Consumer Protection Act, which limits lock-ins and cancellation penalties. Retention here has to be earned rather than contractually enforced.

Financial snapshot

Four charts from the plan. The full set of twenty-four appears throughout the sections below.

Figure 8. Lifetime value against acquisition cost.

Figure 9. Weekly places offered against places taken.

Figure 11. Revenue that does not require another member.

Seventeen sections and five appendices. Every page carries full navigation, a section outline and links to the sections either side of it.

!
Important Notice and Basis of PreparationBasis of preparation, data sources and forward-looking statement caveats. Please read first.

Appendices

Confidential. This document is provided for the purpose of evaluating an
investment in Ascend Strength & Conditioning (Pty) Ltd and may not be reproduced or distributed without written consent. Projections are
forward-looking statements based on the assumptions registered in Section 16 and are not guarantees of future
performance.