Ascend Strength & Conditioning Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
At 4.5% monthly churn the plan earns R1.61m cumulatively; at 6.0% it loses money. The full sensitivity and scenario set.
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. How a Studio Actually Makes Money
- 4. Churn and the Retention Engine
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Compliance and Consumer Protection
- 8. Management and Team
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capacity and Unit Economics Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
- 12.2 Scenarios
12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
|
Driver |
Low (R) |
High (R) |
Swing (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Monthly churn 3.5% to 5.5% |
1 928 806 |
3 775 438 |
1 846 632 |
|
Price ±8% |
2 914 200 |
4 471 800 |
1 557 600 |
|
Overhead ±10% |
3 225 000 |
4 161 000 |
936 000 |
|
Corporate wellness ±35% |
3 301 000 |
4 085 000 |
784 000 |
|
Direct cost ±8% |
3 332 360 |
4 053 640 |
721 280 |
|
Acquisition cost ±40% |
3 466 200 |
3 919 800 |
453 600 |
|
Base case Year 5 EBITDA |
3 693 000 |
A single percentage point of monthly churn outweighs an eight per cent move in price. Churn moves Year 5 EBITDA by R1 846 632 across the range tested, against R1 557 600 for price and R936 000 for overhead.
12.2 Scenarios
|
Downside |
Base |
Upside |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Monthly churn at maturity |
5.5% |
4.5% |
4.0% |
|
Price |
5% lower |
R1 380 a month |
4% higher |
|
Corporate wellness |
25% below plan |
R1 120 000 |
20% above plan |
|
Year 5 EBITDA |
1 248 882 |
3 693 000 |
4 392 138 |
|
Year 5 EBITDA margin |
9.7% |
28.7% |
34.1% |
|
Year 5 profit after tax |
142 990 |
2 158 423 |
2 437 567 |
The downside combination — churn a point higher, price five per cent lower and corporate wellness a quarter below plan — takes Year 5 EBITDA to R1.70 million and profit after tax to R0.48 million. The business survives and remains marginally profitable in its fifth year, but it does not recover its start-up losses within the plan period and the equity return effectively disappears.