Aurelia Healthcare Business Plan › Section 12 › Investment Returns & Exit Strategy

12.1 Returns Summary by Tranche

The Aurelia financing structure is designed to deliver attractive
risk-adjusted returns across the capital stack while maintaining
alignment with AfDB development-impact mandates. Returns are calibrated
to (i) compensate equity holders for greenfield construction and
operational ramp-up risk; (ii) provide secured-debt-style stability to
senior lenders; and (iii) ensure a balanced split of value-creation
between development financiers and the project sponsor, supporting
potential future co-investments.

12.2 Value Creation Bridge

The Year 10 enterprise value of approximately USD 1.8B (Base Case) —
implying combined-equity multiple of money of ~4.5x and Equity IRR of
20.7% — is built from four principal value-creation drivers:

12.3 Exit Pathways

Five viable exit pathways have been identified, in order of preferred
sequence and probability-weighted expected value:

12.3.1 JSE Main Board IPO (Preferred Pathway)

The JSE Main Board listing is the highest-value-realisation pathway
and is the explicit base-case exit strategy. By Year 8–10, the Group
will have 10 years of audited track record, USD 461M+ revenue, 34%
EBITDA margin, ZAR-equivalent ~R8.5B revenue scale, and a broad
operating footprint — comfortably exceeding the JSE Main Board
free-float, market-capitalization, and reporting requirements.
Comparable JSE-listed precedents include Netcare (currently capitalised
at ~R20B) and Life Healthcare (~R19B). An IPO would target a ~25%
primary issuance to fund continued expansion plus secondary monetization
of equity for AfDB and Sponsor at the same valuation, providing both
partial exit and continued upside participation. Indicative exit
valuation under IPO scenario: USD 2.0B–2.4B EV.

12.3.2 Strategic Trade Sale

A trade sale to an international hospital operator is the
second-highest-value pathway. Active strategic acquirers in the African
hospital sector include IHH Healthcare (Malaysia), Apollo Hospitals
(India), Kuwait’s Mediclinic majority shareholder Remgro, and Saudi
Arabian, Emirati, and Indian sovereign investors. A trade sale would
offer immediate, full liquidity and typically attracts a control premium
of ~15–20% versus standalone DCF. Indicative exit valuation: USD
1.9B–2.2B EV.

12.4 Exit Valuation Build-up

Figure 12.1

12.5 Use of Exit Proceeds

At exit, the gross proceeds will be deployed in the following
waterfall priority:

12.6 Comparable Transaction Multiples

Recent African and emerging-market private hospital M&A and
capital markets transactions support the assumed 10.0x EV/EBITDA Base
Case exit multiple:

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