FerroGlobe Resources Group — Competitive Landscape & Positioning

The competitive landscape across producers, traders and integrated players, competitor profiles, and the basis for FerroGlobe’s differentiated positioning.

FerroGlobe Resources Group Business PlanSection 5 › Competitive Landscape & Positioning

Section 5 · Business Plan

Competitive Landscape & Positioning

The competitive landscape across producers, traders and integrated players, competitor profiles, and the basis for FerroGlobe’s differentiated positioning.

5.1 South Africa Producer Landscape

Figure 5.1
Figure 5.1 — Crude/finished steel capacity in South Africa (Mt p.a.). FGRG planned Year-7 capacity included for comparison.

The South African primary steel landscape is concentrated around five
operators of materially different scale. ArcelorMittal South Africa, the
legacy market leader and subsidiary of the global ArcelorMittal group,
operates from Vanderbijlpark, Saldanha and Newcastle with installed
crude steel capacity exceeding 5 million tonnes (although actual
production has been well below capacity in recent years). The 2025
wind-down of the Longs Business represents the most significant capacity
rationalisation in three decades. Scaw Metals, Cape Gate, Columbus
Stainless, and a fragmented set of mini-mills make up the remainder of
domestic supply, while a long tail of importers and stockists service
the residual demand.

5.2 Detailed Competitor Profiles

Competitor Capacity (Mt) Product focus Strategic position vs FGRG
ArcelorMittal SA 5.0 Flat + (legacy) long Incumbent leader; vertically integrated; high carbon-intensity; capacity rationalising. FGRG benefits from withdrawn long-products supply.
Scaw Metals 1.0 Long products, alloy Specialist long-products player; Anglo American background. Limited overlap with FGRG flat-steel trading; partnership candidate.
Cape Gate 0.8 Wire, rebar, fencing Family-controlled; strong distribution. FGRG complementary in flat steel and import substitution.
Columbus Stainless 0.7 Stainless flat Niche specialist; export-oriented. No direct overlap with FGRG.
Mini-mills (combined) 1.5 Long, rebar (informal) Fragmented; sub-scale; operationally constrained. Acquisition or consolidation targets for FGRG.
Importers & stockists n/a Distribution FGRG model is more capital-efficient and offers richer product depth; expected to outcompete on price and reliability.

5.3 Strategic Positioning

FGRG positions as the “agile asset-light vertically integrated
merchant” — a model materially different from incumbent vertically
integrated mills (ArcelorMittal) and from pure stockists/importers. The
model leverages trading-led capital efficiency in early years, layered
with selective downstream asset acquisition only where margin or
strategic value warrants the capital cost.

5.4 Porter’s Five Forces

Force Intensity FGRG implications
Threat of new entrants Low–Med Steel manufacturing has high capital intensity (USD 800–1,200/tonne capacity), regulatory complexity, and requires long-term offtake. Trading entry is lower-barrier but scale and capital access are critical differentiators.
Bargaining power of suppliers Medium Asian mills produce above domestic absorption; FGRG can access diversified sources (China, India, Türkiye, CIS). Diversification policy mitigates concentration risk.
Bargaining power of buyers Medium Large EPC and mining customers exert pricing pressure; mitigated through long-term offtake agreements with embedded indexation.
Threat of substitutes Low Limited at the structural level — steel remains the primary structural material. Aluminium, composites and engineered timber are niche.
Industry rivalry High Global oversupply periodically drives margin compression. FGRG mitigates through diversified geographies and processing margin uplift.

5.5 SWOT Analysis

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Experienced management team (ex-Glencore, structured finance, steel manufacturing) • Diversified business architecture (trading + processing + logistics + energy) • Asset-light early years preserve capital flexibility • Multi-corridor logistics presence (Lusaka, Dubai, Mumbai) • Low-carbon production roadmap (scrap + renewables) • Newco execution risk — no operating history • High initial dependence on equity and DFI funding • Concentration in early years on small number of large suppliers • Vulnerability to ZAR/USD volatility on trading positions • Limited brand recognition in the early years
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
• 70%+ import dependency creates durable trading volume • ArcelorMittal SA capacity withdrawal opens domestic gap • AfCFTA opens trade across 54 African countries • EU CBAM premium for low-carbon steel • Distressed-asset acquisition opportunities at attractive valuations • Growing renewable-energy and EV-related steel demand • Steel price volatility (cyclical industry) • ZAR/USD depreciation impacts dollar-denominated returns • Anti-dumping and trade-defence measures by African governments • Energy supply constraints (load-shedding) affect downstream operations • Geopolitical disruption to Asian supply lanes • Carbon-tax escalation may compress processing margins

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of FerroGlobe Resources Group (Pty) Ltd.