FerroGlobe Resources Group Business Plan › Section 4 › Market Opportunity — South Africa & Sub-Saharan Africa

4.1 South Africa Steel Market — The Anchor

South Africa is the largest steel market on the African continent.
The market reached USD 6.82 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow at a
3.35% CAGR to USD 9.48 billion by 2033. The country accounts for
approximately 35–40% of total Sub-Saharan steel consumption and remains
the most sophisticated end-user market on the continent — automotive,
mining, construction and infrastructure all driving differentiated steel
demand profiles.

Figure 4.1

4.2 Demand Composition

Figure 4.2

Construction and infrastructure represent the largest share of South
African steel consumption at approximately 38%, followed by mining and
metals (18%), automotive and transport (14%), manufacturing and
machinery (12%), energy and utilities (9%), and packaging and appliances
(6%). Each sector exhibits distinct growth profiles: energy and
utilities is the fastest-growing segment, expanding at >7% CAGR
driven by the Just Energy Transition and renewable build-out.

4.3 The Supply Gap

Figure 4.3

The defining structural feature of the African steel market is its
persistent and widening import dependency. Africa produces approximately
23 million tonnes of crude steel annually against demand of
approximately 40 million tonnes, leaving a 17-million-tonne deficit
filled almost entirely by imports from China, India, Türkiye and the
CIS. This gap is the single most important driver of the FGRG investment
thesis — it represents an addressable, multi-decade trading and
processing opportunity worth in excess of USD 25 billion annually at
prevailing prices.

4.4 South Africa Public Infrastructure Pipeline

Figure 4.4

South Africa’s public-sector infrastructure pipeline through 2030
totals approximately USD 168 billion across energy, transport, water,
housing, mining, ICT and ports. Energy alone — driven by the Just Energy
Transition Investment Plan — accounts for USD 42 billion, including
renewable-generation, transmission upgrades and Eskom maintenance
backlog. Transport (roads and rail) accounts for a further USD 38
billion. Steel-intensity of these programmes averages 80–110 kg per USD
1,000 of infrastructure spend, implying steel demand of approximately
13–18 million tonnes over the five-year window from public projects
alone.

4.5 Sub-Saharan Africa — Beyond South Africa

Beyond South Africa, FGRG targets nine priority markets where
structural supply deficits, infrastructure programmes and improving
sovereign trade infrastructure create attractive trading and downstream
opportunities:

4.6 Addressable Market Sizing

FGRG’s serviceable addressable market (SAM) — defined as the
imported-steel volume into Sub-Saharan Africa where FGRG has competitive
trading or distribution advantage — is estimated at approximately 12
million tonnes per annum at 2025 levels, growing to 16 Mtpa by 2032.
Within this, FGRG targets 4–5% market share by Year 7 (5.2 Mt of trading
throughput plus 1.4 Mt of own-production output, against a SAM of
approximately 14 Mtpa at that time).

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of FerroGlobe Resources Group (Pty) Ltd.