Frame & Field Studios Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
What moves Year 5 EBITDA: utilisation, day rate, mix and AI substitution, with downside, base and upside scenarios.
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. What Artificial Intelligence Has Taken, and What It Has Not
- 2. Executive Summary
- 3. Service Lines, Clients and Pricing
- 4. Capacity: The Shooting Day and the Editing Day
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Organisation, Rights and Compliance
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. Risk Analysis
- 12. Implementation Roadmap
- 13. Key Performance Indicators
- 14. Key Assumptions
- 15. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capacity, Mix and Cost Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 10.1 What moves EBITDA
- 10.2 Scenarios
- 10.3 The downside: rate compression across the whole book
10.1 What moves EBITDA
|
Driver |
Downside (R) |
Upside (R) |
Swing (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Day rates ±10% |
2 529 745 |
8 147 425 |
5 617 680 |
|
Artificial intelligence rate pressure ±2 points a year |
3 158 029 |
7 653 973 |
4 495 944 |
|
Editing ratio ±15% |
3 027 388 |
5 853 820 |
2 826 432 |
|
Direct costs ±12% |
4 088 185 |
6 588 985 |
2 500 800 |
|
Utilisation ±8 points |
3 807 601 |
5 338 585 |
1 530 984 |
|
Base case Year 5 EBITDA |
5 338 585 |
10.2 Scenarios
|
Downside |
Base |
Upside |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Utilisation assumption |
-9 points |
As modelled |
+5 points |
|
Day rate assumption |
-8% |
As modelled |
+6% |
|
AI rate pressure |
+2.5 points a year |
As modelled |
-1.0 point a year |
|
Year 1 EBITDA |
(1 975 239) |
(602 241) |
(102 051) |
|
Year 3 EBITDA |
(65 483) |
3 767 790 |
5 439 117 |
|
Year 5 EBITDA |
(627 886) |
5 338 585 |
8 220 758 |
|
Year 5 EBITDA margin |
-2.2% |
19.1% |
29.4% |
|
Cumulative EBITDA, Years 1 to 5 |
(3 505 909) |
14 575 765 |
22 864 553 |
10.3 The downside: rate compression across the whole book
The distinction between the base case and the downside is not competence. It is whether the market continues to distinguish between imagery that must be evidence and imagery that need only be decorative. This plan is a bet that it does, and Section 2.2 sets out the reasoning explicitly so that a reader who disagrees can substitute their own exposure scores and re-run the analysis.