FreshMart Grocery — Risk Analysis and Mitigation
Table 11.1: Risk Assessment and Mitigation Matrix
Section 11 · Business Plan
Risk Analysis and Mitigation
Table 11.1: Risk Assessment and Mitigation Matrix
| Risk Category | Description | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Risk | Lower than projected customer traffic or average spend | Medium | High | Conservative revenue assumptions; flexible cost structure; enhanced marketing during slow periods |
| Competition Risk | Major chain opens nearby or intensifies pricing pressure | High | High | Differentiation through freshness and service; community loyalty programmes; price-matching on essentials |
| Supply Chain Risk | Disruption in fresh produce supply or FMCG availability | Medium | Medium | Diversified supplier base; local farm partnerships; safety stock protocols for essential items |
| Energy Risk | Load-shedding impacts on refrigeration and operations | Medium | High | Inverter and battery backup system; generator for extended outages; comprehensive insurance coverage |
| Theft and Shrinkage | Internal and external theft exceeding 2% shrinkage target | Medium | Medium | CCTV surveillance; access controls; daily stock reconciliation; staff incentives aligned with shrinkage targets |
| Regulatory Risk | Changes in health regulations, labour laws, or tax rates | Low | Medium | Proactive compliance monitoring; membership in industry associations; professional accounting and legal services |
| Cash Flow Risk | Insufficient cash to meet obligations during ramp-up | Medium | High | R300,000 working capital reserve; conservative inventory management; phased expansion of product range |
| Key Person Risk | Loss of owner-operator or store manager | Low | High | Documented SOPs; cross-training of staff; key-person insurance; succession planning from Year 2 |
Table 11.1: Risk Assessment and Mitigation Matrix
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