Kalahari Grid Energy — Appendices
Supporting appendices - the full 12-year portfolio model, the bankable-path model, the assumptions register, the downside scenario, the sources and the glossary and abbreviations underpinning the Kalahari Grid business plan and financial model.
Section 14 · Business Plan
Appendices
Supporting appendices – the full 12-year portfolio model, the bankable-path model, the assumptions register, the downside scenario, the sources and the glossary and abbreviations underpinning the Kalahari Grid business plan and financial model.
Appendix A — Full 12-Year Portfolio Model
Revenue, EBITDA and capacity
| ’27 | ’28 | ’29 | ’30 | ’31 | ’32 | ’33 | ’34 | ’35 | ’36 | ’37 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operational GW (avg) | 0.30 | 1.05 | 1.95 | 2.85 | 3.75 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Revenue ($m) | 37 | 129 | 240 | 351 | 462 | 567 | 616 | 616 | 616 | 616 | 616 |
| EBITDA ($m) | 23 | 85 | 166 | 246 | 328 | 408 | 444 | 444 | 444 | 444 | 444 |
| Margin % | 62 | 66 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Depreciation ($m) | (27) | (66) | (106) | (146) | (186) | (221) | (221) | (221) | (221) | (221) | (221) |
| Interest ($m) | (30) | (74) | (117) | (157) | (195) | (225) | (214) | (200) | (186) | (173) | (159) |
| NPAT ($m) | (33) | (55) | (57) | (57) | (52) | (38) | 9 | 22 | 35 | 48 | 60 |
Cash flow and financing ($m)
| ’27 | ’28 | ’29 | ’30 | ’31 | ’32 | ’33 | ’34 | ’35 | ’36 | ’37 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction capex | (950) | (1,050) | (1,000) | (900) | (700) | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Debt draws | 394 | 592 | 592 | 592 | 592 | 526 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Equity draws | 242 | 363 | 363 | 363 | 363 | 322 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Debt service | (30) | (96) | (172) | (245) | (315) | (378) | (396) | (383) | (369) | (355) | (341) |
| Debt balance | 394 | 964 | 1,501 | 2,005 | 2,476 | 2,848 | 2,665 | 2,483 | 2,300 | 2,118 | 1,935 |
| DSCR (x) | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.98 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 1.16 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.29 |
Appendix B — Bankable-Path Model ($0.070/kWh)
The reconciliation model at a blended $0.070/kWh, reflecting a
corporate-PPA- and wheeling-weighted offtake mix. This is the structure
the Company targets to reach infrastructure-grade returns and a bankable
DSCR.
| ’27 | ’28 | ’29 | ’30 | ’31 | ’32 | ’33 | ’34 | ’35 | ’36 | ’37 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 47 | 165 | 306 | 447 | 588 | 721 | 784 | 784 | 784 | 784 | 784 |
| EBITDA ($m) | 29 | 109 | 211 | 313 | 418 | 519 | 565 | 565 | 565 | 565 | 565 |
| DSCR (x) | 0.89 | 1.06 | 1.18 | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.42 | 1.48 | 1.53 | 1.59 | 1.65 |
| Metric | Base $0.055/kWh | Bankable $0.070/kWh |
|---|---|---|
| Steady-state revenue ($m) | 616 | 784 |
| Steady-state EBITDA ($m) | 444 | 565 |
| Peak DSCR (x) | 1.29 | 1.65 |
| Portfolio equity IRR (%) | 7.1 | 15.3 |
Appendix C — Assumptions Register
Assumptions marked ◆ are sponsor anchors preserved exactly; all
others are analyst-derived.
| # | Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portfolio mix ◆ | 2.8 GW solar / 1.7 GW wind / 0.5 GW BESS | Sponsor |
| 2 | Total capex ◆ | $5.3bn ($0.75m/MW solar, $1.3m/MW wind, $0.6m/MWh BESS) | Sponsor |
| 3 | Blended tariff ◆ | $0.055/kWh | Sponsor; bankability tested §7.6 |
| 4 | Steady-state revenue ◆ | $616m | Sponsor; 11.2 TWh × $55/MWh |
| 5 | Steady-state EBITDA ◆ | $444m (72% margin) | Sponsor |
| 6 | Portfolio capacity factor | ~25.6% blended | Derived from 11.2 TWh / 5 GW |
| 7 | Build-out phasing | 1.5 / 2.0 / 1.5 GW (2026–32) | Sponsor phases; COD-lagged |
| 8 | Gearing (bankable case) | 62% debt / 38% equity | Analyst — 75% not serviceable §7.1 |
| 9 | Debt rate (USD) | 7.5% | Analyst; DFI/commercial blend |
| 10 | Debt amortisation | 18-year, against 20-yr PPAs | Analyst |
| 11 | Asset life (depreciation) | 24-yr blended (BESS 12-yr) | Analyst |
| 12 | Corporate tax | 27% + s20 loss carry-forward | Income Tax Act |
| 13 | Working capital | 6% of revenue | PPA receivables ~45 days |
| 14 | Exit multiple | 11x EV/EBITDA (2037) | Contracted renewables 10–12x |
| 15 | Bankable-path tariff | $0.070/kWh | Analyst; C&I/wheeling-weighted mix |
| 16 | CO₂ factor | ~1.6 Mt/GW/yr avoided | SA grid emissions factor |
Appendix D — Downside Scenario
The downside combines sustained grid curtailment with a tariff
shortfall — the two correlated risks that dominate this investment.
Revenue is reduced 30% against base throughout (curtailment plus weaker
offtake pricing), compressing EBITDA through operating leverage.
| $m | ’28 | ’30 | ’32 | ’33 | ’35 | ’37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (−30%) | 91 | 246 | 397 | 431 | 431 | 431 |
| EBITDA | 53 | 152 | 253 | 275 | 275 | 275 |
| Debt service | (96) | (245) | (378) | (396) | (369) | (341) |
| DSCR (x) | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
In the downside the portfolio cannot service its debt from operating
cash through most of the build and early operating years — DSCR sits
well below 1.0x — and equity value depends entirely on the eventual exit
and on lender forbearance or restructuring. This is the scenario that a
75%-geared structure at $0.055/kWh effectively resembles even in the
base case, and it is why the plan insists on lower gearing, a
corporate-PPA-weighted tariff, DFI concessional support and a rigorous
grid-first close discipline. It is the case against which lenders should
size the DSRA, completion support and equity cushion.
Appendix E — Sources
- DMRE / DEE & IPP Office — REIPPPP Bid Window 7: solar 8.5 GW
bids vs 1.8 GW allocation; wind zero awards; 20-year PPAs; 24-month
build requirement - IPP Office / ESI-Africa / Green Building Africa — grid capacity
as binding constraint; BW6–7 wind outcomes; BESIPPPP BW2 615 MW;
Independent Transmission Projects programme (2025) - GreenCape Market Intelligence Report 2025 & Mordor
Intelligence — installed solar ~8 GW (2025) to 14–17 GW by 2030–31;
Eskom ~R100bn grid upgrade need; 60–70% curtailment/queue exposure; ~20%
Northern Cape corridor output loss - Mordor / market reporting — BW7 solar ~R0.60/kWh;
C&I/wheeling PPAs; recent corporate PPAs (Sibanye-Stillwater 420 MW,
Teraco 120 MW, Scatec Kenhardt 540 MW solar-plus-storage) - REIPPPP programme data — R256bn private investment; 7,300+ MW
awarded; standardised PPA/IA/GFSA/Direct Agreement; no awarded project
has failed - Sponsor brief — 5 GW portfolio, $5.3bn capex, $0.055/kWh, 75:25
target structure (tested and re-derived herein)
Appendix F — Glossary & Abbreviations
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| BESS | Battery Energy Storage System — stores energy for shifting, firming and ancillary services |
| BESIPPPP | Battery Energy Storage IPP Procurement Programme |
| C&I | Commercial & Industrial (offtakers) — mining, industrial and data-centre power buyers |
| CEL | Cost Estimate Letter — first stage of the NTCSA grid-connection process |
| COD | Commercial Operation Date — when a project begins generating revenue |
| Curtailment | Forced reduction of output when the grid cannot absorb generation |
| DFI | Development Finance Institution (e.g. IFC, DBSA, AfDB) |
| DSCR | Debt-Service Cover Ratio — cash available for debt service ÷ debt service |
| DSRA | Debt-Service Reserve Account — reserve funding future debt service |
| EPC | Engineering, Procurement & Construction (turnkey contractor) |
| GFSA | Government Framework Support Agreement — backs REIPPPP offtaker obligations |
| IA | Implementation Agreement — REIPPPP agreement with government |
| IPP | Independent Power Producer |
| IRP | Integrated Resource Plan — South Africa’s electricity capacity plan |
| ITP | Independent Transmission Projects — private transmission procurement (2025) |
| LLCR | Loan Life Cover Ratio |
| NTCSA | National Transmission Company South Africa — grid operator |
| PPA | Power Purchase Agreement — long-term electricity offtake contract |
| REIPPPP | Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme |
| SPV | Special Purpose Vehicle — ring-fenced project company |
| Wheeling | Transmitting power over the grid from generator to an off-site offtaker |
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Kalahari Grid Energy (Pty) Ltd.