Karoo Meridian — Exit Strategy
The exit strategy and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the ten-year horizon.
Section 14 · Business Plan
Exit Strategy
The exit strategy and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the ten-year horizon.
- Trade sale (primary route). Sale to an
integrated agribusiness, food group or international wool/meat platform
seeking certified, traceable supply at scale — the deepest buyer pool
for a 10-year horizon. - PE secondary. Sale to an agricultural or impact
fund; SA agri-focused capital pools have grown alongside DFI
co-investment appetite. - Agricultural REIT / permanent-capital
integration. Separation of the land portfolio (carried at R90m
cost; agricultural land has historically appreciated in nominal ZAR
terms) into a yield vehicle, with the operating company sold or
retained. - IPO (long-dated option). Feasible only at
materially larger scale; treated as optionality, not a base
case.
The base-case valuation applies 5.0x EV/EBITDA to Year 10 EBITDA of
R229.5m — an enterprise value of R1.15 billion against total invested
capital of R245m plus the revolver. After settling residual senior debt
of R19m, equity proceeds approximate R1.13 billion. Section 12.6
quantifies the sensitivity of returns to this multiple and flags the
concentration of value in the terminal event.
14.2 Valuation benchmarks
The 5.0x EV/EBITDA exit assumption sits in the middle of the corridor
observed for control transactions in primary agriculture and integrated
livestock platforms, where multiples cluster between 4x and 6x depending
on land weighting, offtake quality and certification assets. Listed SA
agri-industrial comparables trade wider ranges but carry processing and
brand premiums this enterprise only partially earns by Year 10. Two
features argue for the upper half of the corridor at exit: the
certified-traceable supply position (scarce, and increasingly priced by
strategic buyers) and the land-heavy asset base offering REIT-separation
optionality; two argue for the lower half: sanitary-event exposure and
the residual key-person dependence of stud reputation. The DCF
cross-check in Section 12.9 brackets the same value. The sensitivity
table in Section 12.6 shows the equity IRR remains above 31% even at
4.0x — the return case does not require multiple expansion, only
multiple maintenance.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Karoo Meridian Wool & Livestock (Pty) Ltd.