KarooPrime Capretto Business Plan › Section 13 › Financial Plan

This financial plan is generated from a single, internally consistent
financial model in which the income statement, balance sheet and
cash-flow statement fully reconcile and the balance sheet ties to zero
in every year. All figures are in ZAR million unless otherwise stated
and are presented on a base-case basis; sensitivities and scenarios
follow. Negative values are shown in parentheses in accounting
convention.

13.1 Key assumptions register

The model is driven by a transparent set of operating and financial
assumptions. The most commercially sensitive — blended realisation per
head and EBITDA margin — are deliberately set toward the conservative
end of management’s expectations.

Table 13.1 — Key assumptions register.

13.2 Projected income statement (P&L)

Table 13.2 — Projected income statement (base case). Year 1–2
reflect commissioning losses; the business turns profitable in Year
3.

Figure 13.1

Figure 13.2

13.3 Projected balance sheet

Table 13.3 — Projected balance sheet. The balance check ties to
zero in every year, confirming model integrity.

Figure 13.3

13.4 Projected cash-flow statement

Table 13.4 — Projected cash-flow statement. A R30m revolving
credit facility supports the working-capital trough during ramp, keeping
closing cash above the R6m minimum in every year.

Figure 13.4

13.5 Ratio analysis

The ratio suite below tracks profitability, leverage, liquidity and
coverage — the metrics lenders and investors scrutinise most closely.
Leverage declines steadily as term debt amortises and retained earnings
build; coverage strengthens as EBITDA scales.

Table 13.5 — Ratio analysis (base case). DSCR is below 1.0x
during the ramp and grace period, strengthening to comfortable cover
from Year 5.

Figure 13.5

Figure 13.6

13.6 Debt service cover (DSCR) schedule

DSCR is the ratio of cash available for debt service (CFADS) to
scheduled debt service. The senior facility carries a Year-1 principal
grace period to accommodate commissioning, so early-year cover is driven
primarily by interest. Cover is below the conventional 1.3x covenant
during the ramp; management proposes a funded Debt Service Reserve
Account (DSRA) and the R30m revolving facility to bridge this period,
with cover rising decisively above 1.3x from Year 5.

Table 13.6 — DSCR schedule. Sub-1.0x ramp-period cover is a
deliberate, financed feature of the structure, not an unfunded
gap.

Figure 13.7

13.7 Term-debt amortisation

Term debt is structured in three tranches: Tranche A (R92.5m) drawn
at Phase-1 close with a Year-1 grace period; Tranche B (R55m) drawn in
Year 3 to fund Phase-2 expansion; and Tranche C (R50m) drawn in Year 5
for Phase-3. The schedule below shows opening balance, drawdowns,
interest, principal repayment and closing balance.

Table 13.7 — Term-debt amortisation across three
tranches.

Figure 13.8

13.8 Working-capital build

Working capital is modelled on 35-day receivables, 28-day inventory
and 30-day payables. The net working-capital requirement grows with
revenue; the year-on-year change is a use of cash that the revolving
facility is sized to absorb during peak-build years.

Table 13.8 — Working-capital build. Increases in NWC are a use of
operating cash.

13.9 Break-even analysis

On a Year-5 cost basis, with a contribution margin of 40.1% and fixed
costs of R204m, the business breaks even at approximately R509m of
revenue, equivalent to roughly 176,760 head processed. Modelled Year-5
revenue is well above this threshold, providing a comfortable margin of
safety.

Figure 13.9

13.10 Sensitivity analysis

The tornado below isolates the impact on Year-7 EBITDA of a ±10%
movement in each key driver, holding others constant. Selling price
(realisation) is by far the most influential variable, followed by
throughput volume — confirming that revenue-side assumptions, not cost
lines, dominate the risk profile.

Figure 13.10

13.11 Scenario analysis

Three integrated scenarios stress the model end to end. The downside
applies an import-parity maize squeeze (higher feed cost, softer
realisation); the upside reflects stronger export-premium capture. The
project remains NPV-positive and returns ~19.8% even in the downside
case.

Table 13.9 — Scenario analysis (ZAR million; base case
highlighted).

Figure 13.11

13.12 Monthly Year-1 cash flow

Because Year 1 is the commissioning and ramp period, a monthly
cash-flow view is provided to demonstrate that the funding structure —
equity, senior debt drawdown, grant and the revolving facility — keeps
the business cash-positive throughout the build, with the trough
occurring mid-year as capital deployment peaks ahead of the revenue
ramp.

Table 13.10 — Indicative monthly Year-1 cash flow (ZAR million).
Funding inflows and phased capex keep the cash balance positive through
the commissioning trough.

13.13 Two-way sensitivity — price × volume

The single-variable tornado is complemented by the two-way grid
below, which shows base-case project IRR across simultaneous movements
in realised price and throughput volume (operating cost held at base).
It demonstrates that the investment remains attractive across a wide
combination of revenue-side outcomes; IRR stays above 30% even with both
price and volume down 10%.

Table 13.11 — Base-case project IRR (%) across price and volume
multipliers; centre cell is the base case (35.5%). Operating cost held
at base; the combined cost-and-price downside is captured separately in
scenario analysis.

13.14 Lender covenant & KPI dashboard

The dashboard below summarises the covenant-relevant metrics a senior
lender would monitor, together with indicative covenant thresholds and
the year from which each is met. The structure is deliberately
conservative: covenants are calibrated to bind only once the business
has passed its commissioning ramp, with the revolving facility and
proposed Debt Service Reserve Account bridging the interim.

Table 13.12 — Covenant and KPI dashboard. Ramp-period DSCR below
the threshold is a financed, disclosed feature; lenders would size a
DSRA and structure step-in covenants accordingly.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of KarooPrime Capretto (Pty) Ltd.