KarooPrime Capretto — Sensitivity, Scenarios & Investor Returns
The break-even analysis, the revenue scenarios and the investor returns underpinning the returns case.
Section 28 · Business Plan
Sensitivity, Scenarios & Investor Returns
The break-even analysis, the revenue scenarios and the investor returns underpinning the returns case.
28.1 Break-even analysis
The break-even analysis shows the throughput at which the business
covers its fixed cost base at mature unit economics. The plant’s scale
and modularity mean break-even is reached well within the planned ramp,
providing a substantial margin of safety against volume shortfalls.
28.2 Revenue scenarios
The plan is stress-tested across base, bull and bear scenarios
reflecting different assumptions on volume ramp, realisation and export
penetration. Even in the bear case the business reaches sustainable
profitability, albeit on a longer timeline; the bull case reflects
faster export accreditation and stronger realisations.
28.3 Investor returns
On the base case, and assuming an exit at 8.0× Year-5 EBITDA of
R224,5 million (an enterprise value of approximately R1 796 million
before net debt), the projected equity internal rate of return is
approximately 81%, with a net present value of equity cash flows of
approximately R866 million discounted at 15%.
Projected equity IRR: ~81% (5-year hold, 8.0× EBITDA
exit) NPV of equity cash flows @ 15%: ~R866 million Year-5 EBITDA: R224,5 million at 25.6% margin Cumulative NPAT, Years 3–5: ~R227 million
These returns are sensitive to the exit multiple, the pace of the
volume ramp and the realisation of the export premium. Investors should
review the full assumption set and scenario analysis; the figures
represent management’s base-case projection and not a guarantee of
outcome.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of KarooPrime Capretto (Pty) Ltd.