The projected income statement below is stated in ZAR millions. Revenue and EBITDA are the sponsor’s targets; depreciation, interest, tax and net profit are independently re-derived.
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
2,400 |
4,100 |
6,300 |
8,900 |
12,400 |
|
EBITDA |
338 |
672 |
1,120 |
1,740 |
2,610 |
|
EBITDA margin |
14.1% |
16.4% |
17.8% |
19.6% |
21.0% |
|
Less: depreciation |
-128 |
-226 |
-283 |
-302 |
-328 |
|
EBIT |
210 |
446 |
837 |
1,438 |
2,282 |
|
Less: net interest |
-81 |
-196 |
-237 |
-225 |
-176 |
|
Profit before tax |
129 |
250 |
599 |
1,213 |
2,106 |
|
Less: taxation (27%) |
-35 |
-68 |
-162 |
-328 |
-569 |
|
Net profit after tax |
94 |
183 |
437 |
886 |
1,538 |
|
Net margin |
3.9% |
4.5% |
6.9% |
10.0% |
12.4% |
|
Memo: sponsor NPAT |
121 |
278 |
521 |
864 |
1,390 |
|
Variance to sponsor |
-27 |
-95 |
-84 |
22 |
148 |
Key findingThe profit path is credible and improves with scale
Net margin rises from 3.9% in Year 1 to 12.4% in Year 5 as fixed cost is spread over a larger revenue base and the group deleverages. The early-year thinness is a function of full depreciation and interest hitting before revenue matures, a normal profile for a capital-intensive build, and one the cash-flow structure is designed to carry.
Divisional revenue & contribution
Group revenue is disaggregated below across the six divisions using the sponsor’s target revenue mix, with illustrative divisional EBITDA margins that reflect each business’s structural economics, higher for the capital-light technology and integrated-logistics businesses, moderate for the manufacturing and polymer divisions in their build phase. The allocation is indicative; divisional accounts will be maintained separately once the operating businesses are consolidated.
|
Division |
Mix |
Yr-5 rev |
EBITDA % |
Yr-5 EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Industrial Manufacturing |
34% |
4,216 |
19% |
801 |
|
Logistics Services |
22% |
2,728 |
20% |
546 |
|
Polymer Products |
18% |
2,232 |
21% |
469 |
|
Consumer Industrial Products |
12% |
1,488 |
16% |
238 |
|
Automotive Components |
9% |
1,116 |
14% |
156 |
|
Smart Industrial Technologies |
5% |
620 |
38% |
236 |
|
Group total |
100% |
12,400 |
20% |
2,446 |
NoteWhere the value concentrates
The manufacturing and logistics divisions supply the revenue bulk and the collateral base a lender secures against; the polymer division carries the strongest margin among the heavy-industrial businesses; and the small technology division punches above its revenue weight on both margin and exit multiple. A prospective equity investor should weight the technology contribution heavily when assessing terminal value, and a lender should weight the tangible manufacturing and logistics assets when assessing security.