Appendix A — Revenue by division (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
Division |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mining consumables |
12 |
24.3 |
45.90 |
72.000 |
106.3000 |
|
Rolled steel |
11 |
20.4 |
36.70 |
54.700 |
76.7000 |
|
Cast products & components |
5 |
9.9 |
18.50 |
28.700 |
41.9000 |
|
Scrap-recycling margin |
4 |
8.2 |
14.70 |
22.000 |
30.9000 |
|
Export sales |
4 |
7.3 |
14.20 |
22.700 |
34.2000 |
|
Total |
35 |
70.0 |
130.00 |
200.000 |
290.0000 |
Years 6–10.
|
Division |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mining consumables |
142 |
178.6 |
216.50 |
255.700 |
296.0000 |
|
Rolled steel |
97 |
115.9 |
133.20 |
148.800 |
162.8000 |
|
Cast products & components |
55 |
68.9 |
82.80 |
96.800 |
111.0000 |
|
Scrap-recycling margin |
39 |
47.0 |
54.10 |
60.700 |
66.6000 |
|
Export sales |
46 |
59.5 |
73.40 |
88.100 |
103.6000 |
|
Total |
380 |
470.0 |
560.00 |
650.000 |
740.0000 |
Appendix B — Full income statement (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
US$ m |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
35 |
70.0 |
130.00 |
200.000 |
290.0000 |
|
Operating costs |
(31) |
(60) |
(107) |
(160) |
(226) |
|
EBITDA |
4 |
10.5 |
23.40 |
40.000 |
63.8000 |
|
Depreciation |
(10) |
(18) |
(25) |
(27) |
(31) |
|
EBIT |
(6) |
(8) |
(1) |
13 |
33 |
|
Interest — senior |
(3) |
(8) |
(12) |
(11) |
(10) |
|
Interest — Phase-3 debt |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(2) |
(6) |
|
Interest — WC |
(0) |
(1) |
(3) |
(7) |
(6) |
|
Interest income |
0 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
0.000 |
0.0000 |
|
Profit before tax |
(9) |
(17) |
(15) |
(7) |
11 |
|
Tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
|
Net profit |
(9) |
(17) |
(15) |
(7) |
11 |
Years 6–10.
|
US$ m |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
380 |
470.0 |
560.00 |
650.000 |
740.0000 |
|
Operating costs |
(289) |
(353) |
(414) |
(475) |
(533) |
|
EBITDA |
91 |
117.5 |
145.60 |
175.500 |
207.2000 |
|
Depreciation |
(36) |
(41) |
(45) |
(49) |
(53) |
|
EBIT |
56 |
77 |
100 |
126 |
155 |
|
Interest — senior |
(9) |
(8) |
(6) |
(5) |
(4) |
|
Interest — Phase-3 debt |
(9) |
(12) |
(14) |
(12) |
(10) |
|
Interest — WC |
(5) |
(4) |
(3) |
(4) |
(3) |
|
Interest income |
0 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
0.000 |
0.0000 |
|
Profit before tax |
32 |
54 |
78 |
105 |
138 |
|
Tax |
(0) |
(13) |
(21) |
(28) |
(37) |
|
Net profit |
32 |
41 |
57 |
77 |
100 |
Appendix C — Full balance sheet (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
US$ m |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net PP&E |
111 |
188.9 |
241.90 |
243.900 |
258.9000 |
|
Inventory |
5 |
9.0 |
16.10 |
24.100 |
34.1000 |
|
Receivables |
5 |
9.6 |
17.80 |
27.400 |
39.7000 |
|
Cash |
12 |
12.0 |
12.00 |
12.000 |
12.0000 |
|
Total assets |
132 |
219.5 |
287.80 |
307.400 |
344.7000 |
|
Senior debt |
70 |
115.0 |
126.00 |
112.000 |
98.0000 |
|
Phase-3 expansion debt |
0 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
40.000 |
80.0000 |
|
Working-capital facility |
12 |
28.0 |
69.50 |
63.000 |
54.6000 |
|
Payables |
3 |
6.5 |
11.70 |
17.500 |
24.8000 |
|
Deferred tax |
0 |
1.1 |
2.10 |
3.200 |
4.4000 |
|
Equity |
46 |
69 |
79 |
72 |
83 |
|
Balance check |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Years 6–10.
|
US$ m |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net PP&E |
281 |
299.8 |
310.80 |
309.600 |
296.9000 |
|
Inventory |
44 |
53.1 |
62.40 |
71.500 |
80.3000 |
|
Receivables |
52 |
64.4 |
76.70 |
89.000 |
101.4000 |
|
Cash |
12 |
12.0 |
12.00 |
12.000 |
14.2000 |
|
Total assets |
389 |
429.3 |
461.90 |
482.100 |
492.8000 |
|
Senior debt |
84 |
70.0 |
56.00 |
42.000 |
28.0000 |
|
Phase-3 expansion debt |
115 |
140.0 |
128.60 |
107.200 |
85.8000 |
|
Working-capital facility |
37 |
29.7 |
39.50 |
32.700 |
0.0000 |
|
Payables |
32 |
38.6 |
45.40 |
52.000 |
58.4000 |
|
Deferred tax |
6 |
7.4 |
9.20 |
11.200 |
13.3000 |
|
Equity |
115 |
144 |
183 |
237 |
307 |
|
Balance check |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Appendix D — Full cash-flow statement (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
US$ m |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Operating cash flow |
(5) |
(4) |
0 |
10 |
28 |
|
Investing cash flow |
(121) |
(96) |
(78) |
(29) |
(46) |
|
Financing cash flow |
137 |
101 |
78 |
20 |
18 |
|
Net change in cash |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Unlevered FCF |
(117) |
(86) |
(54) |
11 |
18 |
|
Cumulative FCF |
(117) |
(202) |
(257) |
(246) |
(228) |
Years 6–10.
|
US$ m |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Operating cash flow |
54 |
68 |
89 |
113 |
140 |
|
Investing cash flow |
(58) |
(59) |
(56) |
(48) |
(40) |
|
Financing cash flow |
3 |
(8) |
(33) |
(65) |
(98) |
|
Net change in cash |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
Unlevered FCF |
34 |
45 |
69 |
99 |
130 |
|
Cumulative FCF |
(194) |
(149) |
(81) |
19 |
149 |
Appendix E — Glossary
|
Term |
Definition |
|---|---|
|
CFADS |
Cash Flow Available for Debt Service |
|
DSCR |
Debt-Service Coverage Ratio |
|
DSRA |
Debt-Service Reserve Account |
|
EAF |
Electric Arc Furnace |
|
EBITDA |
Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation |
|
DRI |
Direct Reduced Iron |
|
Grinding media |
Steel balls/rods consumed in ore milling |
|
J-curve |
The early-negative, later-positive cash-flow profile of a capital build |
|
DFI / SADC |
Development-Finance Institution / Southern African Development Community |
|
IRR / NPV |
Internal Rate of Return / Net Present Value |
NoteModel integrity statement
All figures in this Document derive from a single integrated ten-year three-statement model. The balance sheet reconciles to zero in every projection year; interest, tax and depreciation are internally consistent across the income statement, balance sheet and cash-flow statement. Sponsor revenue and EBITDA are preserved exactly; all lines below EBITDA — including the full net-profit path (the sponsor provides only stabilised Year 10, which our re-underwriting corroborates) — together with the capital, cash-flow, coverage and returns analysis, are independently derived on a conservative basis, with tax at the 27% South African corporate rate.
— End of Business Plan —