The programme is delivered over a phased, milestone-driven ten-year rollout. The Gantt chart below sets out the workstreams, sequencing, dependencies and critical milestones, with the core manufacturing plant and power infrastructure front-loaded to generate early revenue and begin de-risking the J-curve.
10.1 Critical milestones
|
Milestone |
Timing |
Dependency |
|---|---|---|
|
Financial close & drawdown setup |
Q1–Q3 Year 1 |
Consortium agreements, security |
|
Power PPA / captive energy secured |
Year 1–Year 2 |
Energy contracts, generation build |
|
First steel & grinding media (Phase 1) |
Year 2–Year 3 |
EAF & media-plant commissioning |
|
Second EAF & automated line (Phase 2) |
Year 4–Year 5 |
Construction, mine-supply contracts |
|
Cumulative cash-flow break-even |
Year 8–Year 9 |
Utilisation & consumables ramp |
|
Multi-site expansion (Phase 3) |
Year 6–Year 10 |
Additional capital, Zambia site |
|
Regional dominance (1.05Mt output) |
Year 10 |
Full ramp & export clusters |
Table 10.1 Critical milestones and dependencies.
10.2 Delivery approach
- Energy-first: Securing reliable, competitively-priced power is a first gate for an EAF business.
- Core-plant-first sequencing: The integrated scrap-to-consumables plant is built first to begin generating revenue.
- Milestone-based drawdowns: Capital released against verified construction and commissioning milestones.
- Quality certification early: Mining-consumables qualification pursued from the outset to unlock contracts.
Analyst flagThe critical path runs through power, construction and consumables qualification
The programme concentrates risk in Years 1–5: securing reliable power, building and commissioning the EAF and consumables plants, qualifying grinding media with mining customers, and winning the mine-supply contracts that underpin the ramp, all while the J-curve consumes cash. A power shortfall, construction delay, or slow consumables qualification would deepen and lengthen the trough at the point of maximum cash sensitivity. Energy-first sequencing, milestone-gated drawdowns, early certification and the debt-service reserve are the mitigants, but disciplined execution through this window is the paramount priority.