Solvanta Renewables Business Plan › Section 21 › Strategic Outlook & Conclusion

The strategic window

South Africa’s energy transition has moved from policy aspiration to
procurement reality: private registrations exceed 5 GW per year, the
transmission operator is independent, a competitive market framework is
in law, and the utility itself targets a predominantly clean fleet by
2040. The window in which development-stage platforms can still assemble
land, grid and offtake positions at attractive economics is finite, grid
capacity in premium corridors is already rationed, and closing it will
favour incumbents. Solvanta’s plan is engineered for that window: secure
positions in FY2027–FY2028, convert them through FY2031, and enter the
competitive-market era as a scaled, integrated incumbent.

What this Plan asks investors to underwrite

• The market: effectively unconstrained demand for
  firm private renewable supply, evidenced by 10 GW+ of corporate
  procurement announcements and tariff escalation at 3x CPI.
• The model: a validated template (Mainstream),
  extended with BESS firming and licensed trading, the two layers where
  the next margin pool sits.
• The delivery: 1.8 GW in five years, more than
  double the benchmark’s realised pace, dependent on grid connection and
  EIA cycle management, the plan’s principal execution risk.
• The capital stack: R9.5 billion of equity atop
  R21 billion senior and R4.1 billion mezzanine, a R34.6 billion programme
  whose full architecture this Plan discloses.
• The return: 35.6% IRR at a 10.0x run-rate exit;
  6.2% at the 8.5x normalised anchor, a spread that makes delivery pace
  and exit timing the investment decision.

Conclusion

Solvanta Renewables presents a coherent, disclosable and executable
plan to build one of South Africa’s leading independent renewable energy
platforms. The sponsor case is ambitious, its volumes require a trading
book alongside the generation fleet, its tariffs carry a premium to
today’s market, and its schedule outpaces the benchmark it cites, and
this Plan quantifies each of those ambitions rather than smoothing them.
What remains after that scrutiny is substantial: unit economics that
work at market tariffs, a demand pool that absorbs every deliverable
electron, asset-level credit metrics that senior lenders finance every
year in this market, and a platform end-state, 1.8 GW integrated with
storage and trading, that the strategic buyer universe demonstrably pays
for. For investors able to underwrite construction-phase complexity and
hold to the run-rate year, Solvanta offers scarce, scaled exposure to
the decisive decade of South Africa’s energy transition.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Solvanta Renewables (Pty) Ltd.