Solvanta Renewables — Investor Returns & Exit
The return profile, the exit routes, the post-plan trajectory and the transaction benchmarking underpinning Solvanta.
Section 19 · Business Plan
Investor Returns & Exit
The return profile, the exit routes, the post-plan trajectory and the transaction benchmarking underpinning Solvanta.
Return profile
| Valuation basis | EV multiple | Implied EV | Equity terminal value | Equity IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run-rate EBITDA (~R4.0bn) — headline | 10.0x | R40.4bn | R16.5bn | 35.6% |
| Run-rate EBITDA — normalised anchor | 8.5x | R34.3bn | R10.5bn | 6.2% |
| In-place FY2031 EBITDA (R2.1bn) | 11.0x | R23.1bn | Under water | n/m |
exit-valuation dependent
The 35.6% headline IRR requires a buyer to pay 10.0x forward run-rate
EBITDA for a platform whose in-place FY2031 earnings are roughly half
its run-rate. At the 8.5x normalised anchor — the multiple at which
African renewable platforms have more typically transacted, IRR
compresses to 6.2%, below the cost of equity. Valued on in-place EBITDA,
the equity is under water against R24.6 billion of net debt. The return
case therefore rests on (i) completing the build so that FY2032 delivers
the run-rate year, and (ii) exit timing into a market that credits
forward earnings. Investors should size positions on the normalised
anchor and treat the headline as delivery-conditional upside.
Exit routes
- Strategic sale: Brookfield Renewable, ENGIE,
TotalEnergies and Scatec have all acquired or built African renewable
platforms; a 1.8 GW operating fleet with an embedded trading book is a
scarce, scaled asset. - Infrastructure fund acquisition: Core-plus
infrastructure funds (African Infrastructure Investment Managers, Old
Mutual, STANLIB, global core funds) acquire de-risked operating
portfolios at 8–11x EBITDA. - JSE listing: A yieldco-style listing once the
fleet is majority-operational; the JSE lacks a pure-play renewable IPP
and index demand for green infrastructure is unmet. - Staged asset recycling: Partial sell-downs of
operating SPV portfolios to recycle equity into development, the
Mainstream playbook, providing interim liquidity without a platform
exit.
Post-plan trajectory
FY2032 is the pivotal year outside the plan window: the full 1.8 GW
fleet completes its first uninterrupted operating year, run-rate EBITDA
of approximately R4.0 billion is demonstrated rather than projected, the
mezzanine is refinanced through a platform green bond or portfolio
term-out, and consolidated DSCR rises above 1.3x as construction
interest ends. Every exit route prices off that year; the plan’s central
execution imperative is to reach it on schedule.
Transaction benchmarking
| Reference point | Basis | Multiple / pricing | Read-across |
|---|---|---|---|
| African renewable platform M&A | Operating portfolios | 7.5–9.5x EBITDA | Supports the 8.5x normalised anchor |
| Global core renewables (listed) | Operating yieldcos | 9–12x EBITDA | Ceiling case; requires scale + growth |
| Scatec, Globeleng-type trades | Mixed operating/pipeline | 8–10x + pipeline value | Pipeline optionality priced separately |
| SA secondary REIPPPP sales | Single de-risked assets | Equity IRRs 11–14% | Floor for de-risked asset recycling |
The benchmarking table frames the underwriting decision plainly: the
8.5x normalised anchor sits inside the observed African platform range,
the 10.0x headline requires the buyer universe to price Solvanta as a
scaled growth platform rather than an asset portfolio, and staged asset
recycling provides a credible floor return path if platform-level
multiples disappoint. The equity case is strongest for investors whose
mandate can hold through FY2032–FY2033 to let the run-rate year, the
mezzanine take-out and the multiple story converge.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Solvanta Renewables (Pty) Ltd.