Solvanta Renewables — Market Sizing: TAM, SAM & SOM
The TAM, SAM and SOM market sizing, the demand-side evidence and the share-capture logic and sensitivities underpinning Solvanta.
Section 7 · Business Plan
Market Sizing: TAM, SAM & SOM
The TAM, SAM and SOM market sizing, the demand-side evidence and the share-capture logic and sensitivities underpinning Solvanta.
Total addressable market (TAM)
South African electricity consumption of roughly 200 TWh per annum,
valued at blended end-user tariffs projected to average R2.60/kWh by
2031, implies a total electricity market of approximately R520 billion
per annum. This is the full national spend on electrical energy across
mining, industry, commerce, agriculture and households.
Serviceable addressable market (SAM)
Solvanta’s serviceable market is private renewable and wheeled supply
to commercial and industrial (C&I) users: mining (which consumes
~30% of national supply), manufacturing, retail property, logistics,
data centres and municipalities procuring independent power. Assuming
35–40% of C&I demand becomes contestable for private renewable
supply by 2031, consistent with corporate procurement announcements
already exceeding 10 GW, the SAM approximates 70–75 TWh, or R190 billion
per annum at delivered private-supply tariffs.
Serviceable obtainable market (SOM)
Solvanta’s FY2031 revenue target of R5.4 billion represents
approximately 2.8% of SAM, an aggressive but not implausible share for a
platform deploying R34 billion of capital, and comparable to the share
of national renewable capacity that Mainstream achieved through the
REIPPPP era. On a volume basis, 5.8 TWh equals roughly 2.9% of national
consumption. The obtainability question is therefore not market space
but delivery pace: the market can absorb every electron the platform can
build and connect.
Demand-side evidence
- Corporate renewable procurement announcements in South Africa
exceeded 10 GW of aggregate demand by 2025, led by mining houses (Anglo
American, Sibanye-Stillwater, Gold Fields), smelters and data centre
operators. - The Eskom–South32 collaboration on renewable supply to the
Hillside aluminium smelter, the largest single electricity consumer in
the country, signals that even the utility now partners on private
renewable structures. - Carbon border adjustment mechanisms (EU CBAM phasing from 2026)
convert renewable supply from a cost decision into an
export-market-access requirement for SA metals, chemicals and automotive
exporters. - Data centre investment (Teraco, Africa Data Centres, hyperscaler
regions) is adding hundreds of MW of high-availability, ESG-mandated
demand concentrated in Gauteng and the Western Cape, precisely the
wheeled-delivery use case.
Share-capture logic and market sizing sensitivities
| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull | Effect on SOM feasibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C&I contestable share by 2031 | 25% | 35–40% | 50% | SOM share required rises to ~4.1% in bear case — still plausible |
| Blended private tariff (R/kWh) | 0.95 | 1.10–1.20 | 1.35 | Revenue-basis SAM shifts ±15–20%; volumes unaffected |
| Grid capacity released p.a. | 3 GW | 5–7 GW | 9 GW | Binding constraint; bear case forces site substitution |
| Own fleet delivered on time | 70% | 100% | 100% | Wheeled book can partially substitute owned volume shortfalls |
The sizing conclusion is robust to conservative assumptions: even in
the bear case, a contestable market half the base assumption, Solvanta’s
FY2031 target requires roughly a 4% share of serviceable demand, against
a platform deploying more capital than any private competitor announced
to date. The genuinely binding variable is grid capacity release, which
caps how much of the demand pool any producer can physically reach; it
is a delivery constraint, not a demand constraint, and it is treated as
such in the risk register.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Solvanta Renewables (Pty) Ltd.