Sparkle Lane Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every throughput, price, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a funder can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Competitive Problem
- 3. Water: Compliance First, Saving Second
- 4. The Subscription Model
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. The Site and the Offer
- 7. Site Selection
- 8. Unit Economics
- 9. The Rollout and Its Gates
- 10. Funding
- 11. People and Operations
- 12. Compliance and Permits
- 13. Financial Projections
- 14. Break-Even
- 15. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 16. Risk Management
- 17. Implementation Timeline
- 18. Returns
- 19. Key Performance Indicators
- 20. Key Assumptions
- 21. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Site Capital Schedule
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 20.1 Trading
- 20.2 Water, capital and funding
20.1 Trading
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sites at year end |
1 |
3 |
Built in Years 1, 3 and 5 with consolidation years between |
|
Cars per day, blended |
31 |
59 |
66 at a mature site; the blend reflects part-year sites |
|
Blended walk-in ticket |
R151.00 |
R151.00 |
Weighted across the menu; not a price anyone pays |
|
Subscribers at year end |
— |
1 000 |
Capped at roughly 380 a site |
|
Monthly subscription price |
R289.00 at launch |
R349.00 |
Effectively R134.23 a wash at 2.6 washes a month |
|
Washes per member per month |
— |
2.6 |
Counted inside total throughput, not as free revenue |
|
Revenue |
R1.03m |
R8.32m |
Walk-in, subscription and ancillary |
|
Site-level EBITDA margin |
14.2% |
31.9% |
30.4% at a mature site |
|
Group overhead |
R570 000 |
R1.29m |
Falls from 55.6% to 15.6% of revenue |
20.2 Water, capital and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Litres per car |
59 falling to 40 |
Against a 155-litre baseline without recycling |
|
Recycling rate |
62% rising to 74% |
Cape Town requires at least 50% for commercial car washes |
|
Water tariff |
R46.50 rising to R74.48 per kilolitre |
Escalating at 12.5% a year |
|
Cost to build a site |
R2.195m gross, R2.015m net |
Escalating to R2.472m at site three |
|
Water recycling plant |
R445 000 per site |
Compliance, not a payback calculation |
|
Landlord installation allowance |
R180 000 per site |
Presented once, as a reduction in cost |
|
Capitalised element |
R2.025m per site |
R78 000 expensed at opening, R92 000 working capital |
|
Founder equity |
R1.40m |
At inception |
|
Growth equity |
R2.40m |
At the second site in Year 3 |
|
Loans and facilities |
R4.42m across the rollout |
SEDFA, equipment finance at two sites, a working capital facility and a bank term loan |
|
Corporate income tax |
27% of taxable profit |
Assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation |
|
Exit multiple |
5.0 times Year 5 EBITDA |
Tested from 3.5 to 6.5 times in Section 18 |