Sparkle Lane Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across market, operational, regulatory and financial risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Competitive Problem
- 3. Water: Compliance First, Saving Second
- 4. The Subscription Model
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. The Site and the Offer
- 7. Site Selection
- 8. Unit Economics
- 9. The Rollout and Its Gates
- 10. Funding
- 11. People and Operations
- 12. Compliance and Permits
- 13. Financial Projections
- 14. Break-Even
- 15. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 16. Risk Management
- 17. Implementation Timeline
- 18. Returns
- 19. Key Performance Indicators
- 20. Key Assumptions
- 21. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Site Capital Schedule
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Wet weather reducing walk-in volume |
High |
Very High |
The subscription base supplies 42.3% of Year 5 revenue and is billed regardless. Cash held through winter. 15% below plan takes EBITDA from R1.36m to R530 000. |
Founder |
|
Zoning refusal or unsuitable drainage |
Medium |
Very High |
Conditional lease subject to written zoning and water approval. Confirmed before every site as a gate condition. Both are binary and knowable in advance. |
Founder |
|
Labour cost and quality |
High |
High |
Rostering to the demand curve; throughput per washer tracked weekly; detailing technicians trained internally; site manager given a path to the next site. |
Site manager |
|
Subscriber displacement at peak |
Medium |
High |
Per-site member cap of roughly 380, set and enforced. Reviewed against peak-hour utilisation quarterly. |
Founder |
|
Recycling rate falling below the municipal minimum |
Low |
Very High |
Verified at commissioning and monitored monthly. Below 50% the site may not use municipal water at all. |
Site manager |
|
Regulatory divergence between municipalities |
Medium |
Medium |
Each new site’s permit process treated as a fresh exercise; R125 000 of professional fees in each site’s capital budget. |
Founder |
|
Debt service cover below the gate |
Medium |
High |
Cover is 0.83x in Year 4 and 1.46x in Year 5. The gate defers site three rather than breaching it. |
Board |
|
Damage to a customer vehicle |
Medium |
High |
Cover for vehicles in the operator’s custody from Year 1. A single uninsured claim would consume a quarter’s site EBITDA. |
Site manager |
|
Water tariff increases |
High |
Low |
Recycling at 74% makes water 2.4% of revenue. A 20% tariff shock moves EBITDA by R33 000. |
Founder |
|
Staff turnover among detailing technicians |
High |
Medium |
Trained internally, paid above the informal alternative, given the highest-margin work. Losing two in a quarter costs more than any overhead line. |
Site manager |
|
Rent above the site selection ceiling |
Medium |
Medium |
Modelled at 20.8% of mature revenue against a 20% ceiling. Negotiated at lease, with the landlord allowance as part of the package. |
Founder |
|
Growth equity not raised at Year 3 |
Medium |
High |
Conversations begin in Year 2 with a full year of site-one trading data, a verified recycling rate and 200 subscribers. |
Board |