Ascend Strength & Conditioning Business Plan — Appendix B: Capacity and Unit Economics Schedules
Capacity, coach and class schedules alongside the per-member unit economics underpinning the revenue build.
Appendix B: Capacity and Unit Economics Schedules
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. How a Studio Actually Makes Money
- 4. Churn and the Retention Engine
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Compliance and Consumer Protection
- 8. Management and Team
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capacity and Unit Economics Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- B.1 Capacity and the timetable
- B.2 Membership movement
- B.3 Unit economics on the margin earned
- B.4 The churn curve
- B.5 Capital phasing and depreciation lives
B.1 Capacity and the timetable
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Studio spaces |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Classes a day |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
Trading days a week |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
Places a class |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
|
Weekly places offered |
1 344 |
1 344 |
2 016 |
2 016 |
2 016 |
|
Class occupancy |
70% |
70% |
70% |
70% |
70% |
|
Visits per member per week |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
Timetable capacity, members |
409 |
409 |
613 |
613 |
613 |
|
Closing members |
339 |
409 |
587 |
613 |
613 |
|
Capacity utilisation |
82.9% |
100.0% |
95.8% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
B.2 Membership movement
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opening members |
0 |
339 |
409 |
587 |
613 |
|
Average members |
205 |
385 |
497 |
588 |
590 |
|
Monthly churn |
8.5% |
7.0% |
5.8% |
5.0% |
4.5% |
|
Members lost a month |
17 |
27 |
29 |
29 |
27 |
|
New members signed a month |
45 |
33 |
44 |
31 |
27 |
|
Net member movement a month |
28 |
6 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
|
Closing members |
339 |
409 |
587 |
613 |
613 |
|
Annual acquisition spend, R |
945 000 |
693 000 |
924 000 |
651 000 |
567 000 |
B.3 Unit economics on the margin earned
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Average revenue per member a month, R |
1 090 |
1 160 |
1 240 |
1 310 |
1 380 |
|
Gross margin earned |
27.7% |
55.7% |
57.1% |
62.8% |
65.0% |
|
Monthly contribution per member, R |
302 |
646 |
708 |
823 |
897 |
|
Monthly churn |
8.5% |
7.0% |
5.8% |
5.0% |
4.5% |
|
Lifetime value, R |
3 552 |
9 230 |
12 208 |
16 454 |
19 933 |
|
Cost to acquire a member, R |
1 750 |
1 750 |
1 750 |
1 750 |
1 750 |
|
Lifetime value to acquisition cost |
2.0x |
5.3x |
7.0x |
9.4x |
11.4x |
|
Acquisition payback, months |
5.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
Lifetime value at a flat 63.5% margin, R |
8 143 |
10 523 |
13 576 |
16 637 |
19 473 |
B.4 The churn curve
|
Monthly churn at maturity |
Average tenure, months |
Cumulative five-year profit after tax (R) |
Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
|
3.5% |
28.6 |
2 364 179 |
Start-up losses recovered |
|
4.0% |
25.0 |
2 144 086 |
Start-up losses recovered |
|
4.5% |
22.2 |
1 608 508 |
Start-up losses recovered |
|
5.0% |
20.0 |
218 075 |
Start-up losses recovered |
|
5.5% |
18.2 |
(1 164 894) |
Start-up losses not recovered |
|
6.0% |
16.7 |
(2 331 263) |
Start-up losses not recovered |
|
6.5% |
15.4 |
(3 379 154) |
Start-up losses not recovered |
B.5 Capital phasing and depreciation lives
|
Item |
Amount (R) |
Life |
Annual depreciation at full deployment (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Premises fit-out — studios, change rooms, reception |
2 450 000 |
8 years |
306 250 |
|
Strength and conditioning equipment |
1 780 000 |
7 years |
254 286 |
|
Third studio build-out |
1 320 000 |
8 years |
165 000 |
|
Solar and backup power |
480 000 |
10 years |
48 000 |
|
Branding, signage and pre-opening marketing |
390 000 |
3 years |
130 000 |
|
Member management and access systems |
210 000 |
4 years |
52 500 |
|
Total fit-out, equipment and launch |
6 630 000 |
956 036 |
|
R |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Capital deployed in the year |
4 339 600 |
431 800 |
1 716 200 |
89 000 |
53 400 |
|
Cumulative capital deployed |
4 339 600 |
4 771 400 |
6 487 600 |
6 576 600 |
6 630 000 |
|
Depreciation charge |
657 657 |
716 718 |
935 693 |
948 407 |
956 036 |
|
Net book value at year end |
3 681 943 |
3 397 025 |
4 177 532 |
3 318 125 |
2 415 489 |